Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Weekly Monitor
- EZ sovereigns have been largely spared in the global bond-market rout, but French bonds remain fragile.
- Foreigners own more than half of government bonds in France, with Japanese savings a key swing factor.
- We think Japan owns around €165B-worth of French government bonds, or 5% of French GDP.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation in both the EZ and Switzerland fell below the respective central-bank targets in May.
- In the EZ, the decline solidifies the need for a rate cut this month, and we look for another one in Q3.
- In Switzerland, deflation is likely to become a mainstay, so brace for a 50bp rate cut from the SNB.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The 0.3% increase in Italian GDP in Q1 was driven by both domestic demand and net trade.
- In Switzerland, it was just domestic demand that pushed GDP up by a whopping 0.8% on the quarter.
- Growth is now slowing in both economies, though risks to our H2 calls are likely to the upside.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Early evidence on Q2 points to upside risk to our forecasts for Spain and Italy…
- ...This reinforces our view that both will outperform France and Germany again.
- Southern Europe’s outperformance in H2 will be even bigger than we expect if US tariff hikes are cut.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB’s measure of consumer inflation expectations in one year’s time rose again in April.
- Other measures are stable, while various data point to general economic weakness…
- ...So, we reiterate our call for the ECB to cut twice more this year, in June and July.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Weak French inflation data put ECB doves in the driving seat ahead of next week’s May EZ HICP.
- German GfK consumer confidence and the ESI were robust midway through Q2; what tariff shock?
- EZ wage growth slowed sharply at the start of 2025; we doubt it will fall much further.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A sustained 50% tariff on EU exports to the US would send the EZ economy into recession.
- The route to an EU-US trade deal is relatively easy, but the EU will respond in kind to US tariff threats.
- The German economy was in rude health in Q1, but trade uncertainty will now weigh on growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A second straight fall in the EZ composite PMI in May points to downside risk for GDP in Q2.
- The INSEE and PMI suggest services are weakening, despite tight labour markets and little hit from tariffs.
- Inflation pressures are unwinding, so we are maintaining our call for further ECB easing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EC’s new economic forecasts see a ‘Goldilocks’ boom next year; the economy won’t be that lucky.
- We see stronger growth in Germany than the EC next year, but weaker in France and Spain.
- The EC’s forecast for EZ inflation in 2026, at 1.7%, rests on too dovish energy and core goods forecasts.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ construction output is slowing after a strong finish to 2024, but leading indicators are improving.
- The EZ current account surplus soared in March, reflecting tariff front-running in goods.
- Portfolio outflows fell sharply in March, and likely crashed outright in April.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ headline inflation is about to fall to 2%, helping to get further ECB easing over the line, but how much?
- Survey data continue to signal significant upside risk to food inflation; energy inflation will rebound too.
- Services inflation will drop sharply in May but is set to be sticky around 3%.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We look for broad-based strength in the surveys for May, but we think it will be temporary.
- The Eurozone’s trade surplus soared in Q1, boosted by tariff front-running in pharmaceuticals.
- The EZ runs a deficit with the US in services, but a surplus if intellectual property is excluded.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Switzerland’s economy was on a tear before the trade-tariff shock hit.
- Strong growth is not inflationary, and is now slowing; the SNB will cut in June, taking rates below zero.
- EZ GDP was revised down in Q1 and will also slow ahead, but the unemployment rate will stay low.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Front-loaded fiscal stimulus can add 0.5pp to German growth this year, in the best-case scenario.
- Defence spending is poised to accelerate after a slow start to the year, but the multiplier is low.
- Front-loading of infrastructure spending via €100B in funding for local government is a key upside risk.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Investor sentiment, measured by the ZEW, improved in May despite a fall in the current conditions index.
- Investor sentiment now points to a rebound in the PMI as markets forget all about tariffs.
- Near-real time data also signal resilience in the EZ economy midway through the second quarter.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A temporary reprieve in the US–China trade war is worth far less than financial markets are assuming.
- Early signs suggest Mr. Trump will go hard on the EU, keeping uncertainty for the EZ economy elevated.
- Isabel Schnabel is coming out swinging for ECB hawks, but will her argument carry the day?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EU’s announcement of retaliation against US tariffs is an attempt to get Washington to the table.
- Brussels’ WTO case against the US indicates that it won’t accept 10% as a floor for tariffs.
- EU purchases of energy, agricultural products and defence goods are the clearest route to a deal.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ construction PMI rose in April, on the back of a recovery in new orders in Germany.
- Construction activity is still faring better in Italy than in Germany or France.
- The sector is likely to support EZ GDP in Q2, as it seems to have done in Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss inflation fell to a lower-than-expected zero in April, with a knock-on effect on our forecasts…
- ...We now see deflation until mid-2026; the SNB will cut its policy rate below zero in June in response.
- We look for a 50bp rate cut at the next meeting, taking the key policy rate to -0.25%.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Jump in April core inflation was due to Easter effects in services; the remaining components were soft.
- Dovish forecasts from the ECB will pave the way for for a back-to-back 25bp rate cut next month…
- …and we now look for an additional 25bp cut in July, but also hikes next year, in June and September.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
