Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Weekly Monitor
- The Eurozone is still an incomplete currency union, but we think it will carry on regardless.
- The pandemic and war in Ukraine show that inflation is possible even in a rapidly aging economy.
- Fiscal activism, inflation and higher interest rates are all here to stay in the EZ, for the foreseeable future.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Our preliminary forecasts for France and Germany point to downside risks to EZ core inflation in April.
- A VAT hike on gas in Germany and higher oil prices are near-term upside risks to energy inflation.
- Italy will struggle to shrink its budget deficit to 3% any time soon; will the EU take note?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Industrial production in the Eurozone likely jumped in February but fell over Q1 as a whole.
- Retail sales data point to a subdued EZ consumer in Q1, but the services numbers will look better.
- Our Nowcast model points to EZ GDP stagnating in Q1, but it is too downbeat; a 0.2% rise is more likely.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Early HICP numbers point to downside risks to EZ inflation, but beware Easter effects in Germany.
- A soaring French budget deficit in 2023 raises the risk of a confidence-denting income tax hike in 2024.
- The Eurozone money supply data are picking up, supporting a further rebound in the composite PMI.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The Eurozone PMIs suggest services activity is now rebounding; the outlook for Q2 is brightening.
- Germany and France are holding the EZ economy back; Southern Europe is doing the heavy lifting.
- We still see the euro area economy returning to growth in Q1, with a 0.2% increase in GDP.
Samuel TombsEurozone
- Interest-rate and core-inflation differentials still point to upside risks for EURUSD.
- We continue to believe EURUSD is good value below 1.10; a rise to 1.15 should be possible.
- Spain will continue to outperform despite the government ditching its attempt to set a budget.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ economy remained stuck in the mud in Q4; we think growth is now rebounding, slightly.
- A rise in consumers’ spending and a lift from inventories should be key drivers of growth in 2024.
- Industrial output in Germany and Spain rose in January, but a plunge in Ireland will drive the EZ headline.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Hopes for a spring ECB rate cut have been dashed; we now see the first of four 2024 rate cuts in June.
- Services inflation in the Eurozone is still running hot; it likely won’t drop much below 3% this year.
- Absent a negative shock, underlying inflation in the EZ will struggle to return to 2% on a sustained basis.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A crash in investment weighed down the German economy in Q4; capex is set for a big fall in 2024.
- Consumers’ spending is now rebounding in Germany, in line with firming growth in real income.
- We now see zero growth in Germany this year, down from +0.3% previously; risks are to the downside.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss industrial production fared worse than we thought in Q4, but construction outperformed...
- ...We are sticking to our call that GDP fell by 0.2% on the quarter in Q4; if so, it rose by 1.2% in 2023.
- Base effects point to a big fall in French core inflation in February, to around 2% on the HICP.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German energy prices should be falling more quickly; will they adjust further in coming months?
- The drop in German food inflation is almost over, but we think it will dip a bit further in Q1.
- Core inflation in Germany will decline further in the first half of the year, despite stickiness in services.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Italian GDP rose more than we expected in Q4, forcing us to raise our forecasts for this year...
- ...Consumption will drive up GDP, which we now think will rise by 0.8% this year, the same as in 2023.
- A correction in investment is coming; a key downside risk is that it is bigger and quicker than we expect.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Money data, adjusted for savings, suggest a Q1 recovery in EZ GDP is still on the cards...
- ...Growth in bank lending, however, suggests the recovery will be tepid, at best.
- Consumer confidence figures imply the same, as German sentiment is hurt by higher taxes.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A raft of collective wage agreements will be renewed this year, and the ECB is watching closely.
- If the ECB waits until it has a full overview, rate cuts will be delayed, even beyond June.
- We still see a rate cut in March as inflation comes down much faster than the central bank expects.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Data until November suggest French GDP plunged in Q4; we’re lowering our forecasts.
- The savings rate is a key swing factor for French consumption growth; what will it do in 2024?
- The inventory correction in France has likely run its course, but net investment is slowing.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ inflation was lifted by base effects in December; the downtrend in the core is uninterrupted.
- Markets are folding on expectations of a March rate cut; we aren’t, until we see January inflation figures.
- German retail sales plunged in November; seasonals have caught up with Black Friday shopping.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Markets think the ECB will cut rates in March, as do we; inflation below 2% by February should do it.
- Energy prices are the key wildcard for headline inflation in Q1; so far the trend looks benign.
- In the core, non-energy goods inflation is about to collapse, but services inflation is still sticky.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Friday’s PMIs confirmed the EZ economy was still is in a rut in December, pointing to falling GDP in Q4.
- The PMI input price component suggests EZ headline inflation will stabilise at just under 2% in H1 24.
- Accelerating third quarter growth in hourly labour costs is grist on ECB hawks’ mills.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB will keep rates and the pace of QT unchanged this week; all eyes on the new forecasts.
- We think the ECB will lower its 2024 inflation forecast by 0.5pp, to 2.7%, and we look for 2.0% in 2026.
- The consensus now expects the first ECB rate cut in June next year; we still believe March is a good bet.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
