Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Chartbook Daily Monitor
- We think EZ headline and core inflation fell by 0.1pp in March, to 2.2% and 2.5% respectively.
- Easter effects depressed German services inflation in March, but core goods inflation in Italy jumped.
- German retail sales were stronger at the start of 2025 than we expected; upside risk to Q1 growth?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
THE ECB HAS ONLY ONE MORE CUT IN IT...
- ...ASSUMING JUST SMALL US TRADE-TARIFF INCREASES
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The US confirmed its wish to raise tariffs on imports of EU cars next week; car parts will also be included.
- These hikes, touted in February, are “baked in the cake” for our Q2 GDP baseline; the hit will be small.
- Money and credit data are improving and continue to point to faster EZ GDP growth.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EUR has risen against the USD ever since the EU and German fiscal announcements in March.
- Fundamentals, such as interest rate differentials, point to further strength ahead.
- We look for EURUSD to reach 1.10 at end-2025, and 1.15 at end-2026.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Germany’s IFO business climate index rose in March, mirroring the jump in the PMI…
- ...The surveys still point to recession risk in Q1, after the GDP fall in Q4; we doubt that will be the case…
- ...The surveys have underestimated GDP growth in recent quarters, and are likely doing so again in Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The PMI rose a touch in March, and Q1, supporting our expectation for a pick-up in EZ GDP growth…
- ...But the PMI is likely to fall again in April, as higher- tariff announcements weigh on firms’ outlooks.
- Price pressures eased at the end of Q1, paving the way for another ECB rate cut.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The SNB cut rates for the fifth straight meeting, as expected, taking the policy rate to 0.25%.
- The lack of changes to the decision statement and forecasts means June’s meeting is wide open…
- ...But we maintain that the Bank has more reasons to keep its powder dry than cut again.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Headline inflation in the Eurozone fell to 2.3% in February, which is as good as it will get this year.
- Non-energy goods is a wild card for inflation in March; base effects point to a big jump.
- A blanket and sustained EU retaliatory tariff would lift inflation, but we doubt this is on the cards.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ trade data show a jump in exports to the US in January, as Mr. Trump fired off tariff threats.
- February and March figures are likely to show further increases in exports across the Atlantic…
- ...But we see some offsetting impact from tariff front-running by EU firms.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Germany needs a budget deficit of 4% of GDP over three years to lift defence spending quickly to 3.5%.
- Defence and infrastructure spending require more Bunds; €100B per year over the next decade?
- Rising uncertainty will weigh on Bund yields in Q2, but they’re right to fear the new fiscal plans.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ manufacturing is on track for a strong Q1, but trade uncertainty looms over the rest of the year.
- The EU’s retaliation against US metals tariffs still leaves a small overall share of trade directly affected.
- EU import tariffs point to upside risk to consumer price inflation in core goods, in theory.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Growth in compensation-per-employee and the ECB’s wage tracker are easing…
- ...in line with other measures of EZ wage growth, pointing to a sustained slowdown this year.
- We doubt that wage growth will fall to close to 1%, as implied by the ECB’s wage tracker.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Services production was up sharply in Q4, thanks to continued strength in IT services.
- Surveys remain positive on the outlook for services, and the sector will lead the increase in GDP in Q1.
- Our nowcast model is looking ugly, but we reiterate our call for a pick-up in EZ GDP growth, for now.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The range of economic outcomes in the Eurozone is widening; be ready for whiplash in the surveys.
- High-stakes negotiations between the EU and the US in Q2, on tariffs, Ukraine, NATO and Greenland.
- Mixed economic data in Germany; is industrial production finally rebounding?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB is playing it safe; trade uncertainty outweighs upside risks from fiscal stimulus, for now.
- April is wide open, but the ECB will pause its easing unless it perceives US tariffs on a sustained basis.
- The ECB has pushed out the point at which inflation hits 2%; it will soon have to abandon the idea entirely.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Germany has fired a fiscal bazooka, which won’t go unnoticed by the ECB today.
- Swiss inflation fell further in February, to 0.3%; we think this is a trough, for now.
- We expect the SNB to cut by 25bp later this month, marking the final reduction in this easing cycle.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EU’s first defence package contains only a small element of joint loans; more will be needed soon.
- EZ unemployment remains pinned at a record low, though we think it will start rising soon, slowly.
- Markets see tariff risks as dovish for ECB policy, but the economic data are pulling in the other direction.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB will cut its policy rates by 25bp, but the argument for further easing is now much tougher.
- February inflation data mean the ECB’s forecast for Q2 inflation at 2.1% is now a Hail Mary.
- ECB doves will focus on downside risks to growth and employment from tariffs; they have a point.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss GDP rose by 0.5% on the quarter in Q4, much better than the measly 0.1% growth in EZ GDP.
- Growth will slow, falling in line with that in the EZ, as net trade drags on GDP and spending growth slows.
- The US President has fired another tariff threat at the EU, but we are still in waiting mode.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
RISKS TO OUR HAWKISH ECB CALL ARE FOR LESS EASING...
- ...ASSUMING ONLY SMALL US TRADE TARIFF INCREASES
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
