Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
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- A pick-up in services production boosted French growth in Q1; Q2 is set for further improvement, just.
- Forecast upgrades in Germany and France mean we now estimate EZ GDP rose by 0.3% in Q1.
- Political uncertainty is increasing in Spain, as the Prime Minister mulls resignation.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We’re lifting our forecast for German Q1 GDP growth, by 0.2pp to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
- German manufacturing and services output are on the mend, while retail sales are still stuck in the mud.
- Construction was boosted by mild weather in Q1; output will fall sharply in the second quarter.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The rise in the EZ composite PMI suggests we should expect a pick up in GDP growth in Q2.
- Higher selling price expectations won’t prevent an ECB cut in June; they still point to lower inflation.
- The SNB’s tweak to minimum reserve requirements is not as big a deal as markets think.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The jump in US rate expectations is not needed to explain the similar repricing in EZ expectations.
- We expect bond yields in Germany to drift lower in the near term as the ECB starts cutting rates...
- ...But we still see an increase next year as the policy rate settles above neutral and inflation risks return.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ construction rose in February, but less so than implied by the advance data; seasonals to blame?
- Either way, construction was a boost to EZ GDP in Q1, and it suggests risks are tilted to the upside.
- The EZ current account surplus dipped in February and will fall further; portfolio inflows remain robust.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Rising energy inflation is a threat to the June rate cut, but we think falling core inflation will do the trick.
- The early Easter sustained services inflation in March, due to a leap in airfares; it will fall in April.
- Our forecast for a July rate cut is now hanging by a thread; we’ll update our view with the April HICP.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Spain was again the star performer in Q1; we look for GDP to have risen by 0.6% quarter-to-quarter.
- Italy was close behind, faring better than France and Germany, as construction investment rose again.
- Growth should rise in Spain and Italy later this year, but risks are to the downside, especially in Italy.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We see little reason why the ECB should worry about the euro if it has to cut rates before the Fed.
- Our Nowcast model now points to EZ GDP rising by 0.2% in Q1, despite soft industrial production data.
- A volatile Middle East could divert attention away from Ukraine’s war with Russia; Mr. Putin knows this.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB stood pat yesterday but sent a clear signal of a first rate cut at its next meeting, on June 6.
- We expect the Bank to cut rates by 25bp in June, and at each of the next three meetings.
- Markets have pared back expectations of ECB cuts after the hot US CPI data; that is a mistake.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A lot can still go wrong in the EZ economy, but the data suggest that GDP growth firmed in Q1.
- Early data imply that EZ services production rebounded strongly in the first quarter.
- Mild weather boosted construction in Q1, and manufacturing, ex-Ireland, improved too.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ compensation-per-employee growth slowed in Q1, but what about negotiated wages?
- The HICP components most correlated with wage growth point to a significant slowdown in H1 2024.
- The Q1 bank lending survey is not the slam dunk for ECB doves that many seem to believe.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- This week’s ECB meeting will be a dovish hold; Ms. Lagarde will lay the foundation for a June cut.
- The consensus and markets see the ECB’s policy rate falling below 2.5% in 2025; we beg to differ.
- Rising production in industry and services points to upside risks to German GDP growth in Q1.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The fall in Swiss inflation in March solidifies our view that more SNB rate cuts are on the way this year.
- EZ house prices fell in Q4 and were down by 1.1% in 2023 overall; we look for another 1% drop this year.
- The PMI adds to the evidence that Spain’s economic outperformance continued in Q1; we concur.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ inflation surprised to the downside in March, but not enough for the ECB to pull the trigger next week.
- Services inflation was sustained by the early Easter in March; it will come down sharply in April.
- We expect EZ headline inflation to stabilise around 2% from August through to Q1 next year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The drop in German inflation cements the outlook for a below-consensus EZ inflation report today.
- Why wouldn’t the ECB cut this month if inflation hit 2.2% in March? We can’t see why not either.
- Weakness in France and Germany is still holding back momentum in EZ manufacturing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Spanish inflation rose 0.4pp to 3.2% in March, less than we expected...
- ...We are revising down our forecast for the Eurozone headline; it likely rose just 0.1pp to 2.7% in March.
- Spanish CPI is further along than the EZ headline, suggesting EZ inflation will rise further before it falls.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German consumer confidence remains depressed, but the headlines are poor indicators of spending.
- Rising real income growth and a stabilisation in the labour market are tailwinds for German consumers…
- ...But early-Q1 data on retail and car sales point to near-term downside risks for consumption growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB faces a unique challenge in thinking about fiscal policy; fiscal tightening is now lifting inflation.
- We estimate that the unwinding of fiscal stimulus is now boosting EZ headline inflation by 0.4pp...
- ...In a fight for every percentage point to get inflation to target, this could prevent ECB rate cuts.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The SNB cut interest rates, beating other major DM central banks to the punch on easing policy.
- More easing is likely over the coming year; we look for 75bp of further cuts by December.
- The risks are to fewer cuts; the SNB sees inflation in line with its price-stability mandate out to 2026.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- It’s a close call, but we think the SNB will hold fire at today’s meeting and first cut in June instead.
- Risks are tilted towards a rate cut today; markets are pricing in 40% probability of a move.
- mItalian industrial production started the year on a weak footing, but EZ construction is holding up.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone