Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist) Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
In one line: A slight downside surprise, offsetting upside surprises in France and Spain.
In one line: Stability in the labour market, for now; state CPIs tilt dovish.
In one line: Still well above 2%, but little impact on the ECB’s reaction function.
In one line: EZ inflation still looks dovish for February, but not enough to shift the ECB’s stance.
In one line: A strong rise in M1 growth; did lending growth really slow?
- M1 growth leapt in January, but loan growth to non-financial firms slowed…or did it?
- The EC confidence survey fell in February, but the probability of a recession in the Eurozone is still low.
- Business sentiment in Italy edged down this month, but we remain optimistic about growth in 2026.
In one line: Dovish, but far from underwriting a further rate cut.
In one line: Strong momentum in domestic demand, but risks still loom in early 2026.
- EZ inflation will likely stay low in February, but the bar for further ECB easing remains high…
- …A rebound in liquid fuel inflation is the main near-term upside risk to EZ inflation.
- German domestic demand posted strong growth in Q4; just what the doctor ordered.
- INSEE survey data point to downside risk to growth in French domestic demand, ex-inventories, in Q1.
- Investment in France is still struggling, and consumption growth is vulnerable to a reversal.
- We’re lowering our full-year 2026 growth forecast for France by 0.3pp, to 1.0%.
- Mr. Trump’s new tariffs on the EU are little changed, but will they shift the timing of US imports?…
- …A universal US tariff reduces the disinflationary threat to EZ core goods from Chinese dumping.
- Italian energy prices will fall further this year, as the government aims to lower electricity and gas prices.
In one line: A modest rebound, but GDP growth is doing better than implied by the PMIs.
- Eurozone PMIs still support the idea of a modest cyclical upturn in the economy in early 2026.
- Strength in German PMIs is key for the near-term outlook in the Eurozone; so far so good.
- PMI output prices retreat a tad in February but remain inconsistent with further ECB easing.
In one line: Fall in electricity prices offset by higher prices at the petrol pump.
- Inflation in France fell sharply in January, but is now poised for a rebound as energy inflation rises.
- Consumer electricity prices in France are set to become much more volatile after the regulation shift.
- Core inflation in France should hold around 1% for most of 2026, before rising to 1.5% by December.
In one line: Fall in electricity prices offset by higher prices at the petrol pump.
- German electricity prices fell only modestly in January, and petrol prices jumped.
- Low German gas inventories point to upside inflation risk, but also make sense given a shift to LNG supply.
- ZEW investor expectations fell in February but remain close to a cyclical high.
- The Swiss economy eked out growth of 0.2% in Q4 after shrinking in Q3. Q1 looks set to be better.
- EZ industry had a challenging December, and surveys point to downside risk in early Q1.
- We think it is only a matter of time before EU leaders get serious about joint borrowing for defence.
