Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist) Craig Botham Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)
In one line: Decent, but now signals downside risks relative to official forecasts.
In one line: Strength in manufacturing, but PMIs signal weakness in services.
- President Trump has backed down on Greenland, bringing relief to Nuuk, Copenhagen and markets.
- The EZ budget deficit widened in Q3, driven mainly by a significant increase in Germany’s deficit.
- Risks to Germany’s fiscal push remain tilted towards near-term disappointment on growth.
- Investor sentiment soared at the start of 2026, but geopolitical tremors now hint at a slide in February.
- EZ construction output fell in November, but we still look for a decent gain over Q4 as a whole…
- …Leading indicators for construction in France and Germany are improving, slowly.
- Can the EU and Denmark find an off-ramp for Mr. Trump in Greenland that avoids war? We hope so.
- The downward revision to EZ inflation in December underscores dovish risk to ECB policy bets in Q1.
- We see EZ inflation falling to 1.6% in January, though these data are a wild card due to one-off effects.
In one line: The probability of further ECB easing is underpriced.
- The Mercosur trade deal is an opportunity for Europe to regain regional influence it has ceded to China…
- …We think EU farmers are better off than without the deal, despite their continued opposition.
- The plunge in German inflation in December is confirmed; how far will inflation fall in January?
In one line: Upside risks building for Q4 GDP growth.
In one line: Back to growth; reversal of net trade drag a big upside risk to 2026 growth.
In one line: One more decline coming in January before a rebound.
- GDP growth looks set to beat the MPC’s forecast in Q4 2025, after November’s 0.3% gain.
- The recovery in autos manufacturing has little further to run, but underlying activity looks solid to us.
- Construction output is falling rapidly, closing the gap on the PMI and representing a downside risk to GDP.
- EZ house prices are rising strongly, but they’re driven by positive outliers in the smaller economies.
- Our model suggests that EZ house price growth will cool this year, to around 3% year-over-year.
- Rising house prices boost household net worth, which is now an upside risk for consumption growth.
- US Greenland ambitions will accelerate EU defence spending and raise the risk of an EU-US trade war.
- The EU economic ‘bazooka’ would likely be unholstered if the US moves to take over Greenland.
- An intra-NATO shooting match is highly unlikely, but tensions will ratchet up before a resolution is found.
In one line: Industry slowed sharply in Q4, but goods spending likely accelerated.
In one line: Strong manufacturing, but plunging exports.
- A jump in German manufacturing points to upside risk to Q4 GDP, but we still see a modest 0.2% rise.
- We’re lifting our Q4 growth forecast in France, by 0.2pp to 0.1%, due to strength in our nowcast model.
- Evidence of robust Q4 GDP in France and Germany will be reassuring news for the ECB.
In one line: Modestly hawkish as selling prices rise and unemployment dips.
In one line: Still high, but not a decisive hawkish signal for the ECB
In one line: Sizzling, but at odds with weakening surveys.
- Swiss CPI in December eliminates the risk of deflation, as well as questions about negative rates.
- German factory orders rose strongly midway through Q4, but surveys signal downside risks.
- Falling unemployment and rising selling prices in the ESI tilt hawkish after dovish December inflation data.
