EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, December 2024

In one line: Better than markets expected, but surveys warn of accelerating weakness in Q1.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 January 2025 Eurozone Monitor German unemployment will rise further at the start of 2025

• German unemployment held steady in December, but surveys warn of further increases in Q1.
• We think EZ HICP inflation rose by 0.3pp in December, to 2.5%, 0.1pp above the consensus.
• The upturn in German retail sales is intact, but manufacturing is still stuck in the mud.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs & Money Supply, EZ, Dec/Nov

In one line: Sustained weakness in manufacturing; upturn in real M1 growth is accelerating.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 January 2025 Eurozone Monitor Fiscal policy uncertainty in the EZ to dominate early on in 2025

• Uncertainty over EZ fiscal policy at the start of 2025, but the outlook for monetary policy is clearer.
• Data released over the holidays confirm stellar Q3 GDP growth, and slightly higher inflation, in Spain.
• Early 2025 data to signal still-difficult conditions in industry, but a continued upturn in M1 growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone