Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
- A glass-half-full perspective indicates that the stars are aligned for a “beautiful releveraging” in the EZ.
- The EZ economy is completing a soft landing, an important prerequisite for a beautiful releveraging.
- Germany leading from the front is a key condition for a growth-supporting leverage cycle in the Eurozone.
- Falling oil prices and a strong euro are playing into the hands of ECB doves, for now.
- Services inflation is a key upside risk in the June HICP, but we still see core inflation at 2% by August.
- Fiscal details and a US-EU trade deal could swing the September meeting in favour of ECB hawks.
In one line: Are we too downbeat on Germany?
In one line: Stuck in the mud, but also underestimating growth.
In one line: Stable, but weak.
- A firm commitment from Germany to spend 5% of GDP on defence would be a rug-pull for Bunds.
- Rising investor sentiment and calmness on the trade front point to decent June survey data this week.
- Early-Q2 data indicate upside risk to GDP growth in France, but we still look for just 0.1% q/q.
In one line: A September cut is still on, but the ECB will end up regretting it.
- The EZ current account surplus crashed in April, pulled lower by net trade in goods and services.
- Portfolio in- and outflows in the Eurozone remain strong, but both are now likely peaking.
- Final EZ HICP data leave intact yesterday’s forecast update, save for a small revision to inflation in 2025.
