Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Daily Monitor Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
In one line: Only a washout in November can deliver an ECB rate cut now.
In one line: In line with our forecast; a coin toss between 2.1% and 2.2% on the EZ HICP.
In one line: Flat over Q3 as a whole.
In one line: Thin gruel, but a bit of clarity on the ECB’s ETS2 assumptions.
In one line: Nothing to see here, move along.
In one line: Germany avoids recession, just; inflation down fractionally in October.
- The ECB took a breather in Florence; no change in policy and little in the way of guidance.
- Inflation in Spain and Germany, and our forecasts for Italy and France, signal EZ inflation at 2.2% today.
- EZ GDP rose by 0.2% quarter-to-quarter in Q3, breezing past the ECB’s September forecast.
In one line: Stung by volatility income expectations, again.
In one line: Expectations at a cyclical high.
In one line: PMIs remain terrible, but INSEE survey data look better.
In one line: Punchy headline, but details remain flaky.
- Inflation data clearly suggest the ECB is now on hold, but other data have tilted dovishly recently.
- A delay to the implementation of ETS2 could be exactly what ECB doves need for a rate cut in Q4…
- …But our forecasts still imply that the Bank will need to lift its core inflation outlook, precluding a cut.
- Germany’s 2026 draft budget promises borrowing of close to 5% of GDP next year; can we believe it?
- A turn in the investment cycle is the key prerequisite for a pick-up in German growth next year.
- Risks are tilted to the downside for our upbeat 2026 forecasts, but leading indicators agree with us.
In one line: Core is too strong for another rate cut in Q4.
In one line: Mostly base effects, the trend remains subdued.
- Spain’s budget negotiations are non-existent; another rollover of the 2023 budget seems likely...
- ...Still, its deficit will shrink out to 2027, and in 2025 be inside the EU’s 3% limit.
- ECB doves point to downside inflation risks, but we still think the Q4 HICP data will move against them.
In one line: Rising, but not the start of a sustained pick-up.
- Sébastien Lecornu plays his trump card, but will suspending pension reform be enough?
- Mr. Macron will come under rising pressure to call new elections if RN continues to rise in the polls.
- The cyclical improvement in France’s budget deficit looks set to continue in H2 as tax revenues rise.
- Germany will raise its public debt burden by more than €1T over the next decade; what will this fund?
- A sustained rise in defence spending to 3.5% ramps up the pressure on public finances from 2027.
- The German government’s plan implies front-loaded investment from special funds starting next year.
