Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Global Weekly Monitor Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
- US Greenland ambitions will accelerate EU defence spending and raise the risk of an EU-US trade war.
- The EU economic ‘bazooka’ would likely be unholstered if the US moves to take over Greenland.
- An intra-NATO shooting match is highly unlikely, but tensions will ratchet up before a resolution is found.
- A jump in German manufacturing points to upside risk to Q4 GDP, but we still see a modest 0.2% rise.
- We’re lifting our Q4 growth forecast in France, by 0.2pp to 0.1%, due to strength in our nowcast model.
- Evidence of robust Q4 GDP in France and Germany will be reassuring news for the ECB.
- Swiss CPI in December eliminates the risk of deflation, as well as questions about negative rates.
- German factory orders rose strongly midway through Q4, but surveys signal downside risks.
- Falling unemployment and rising selling prices in the ESI tilt hawkish after dovish December inflation data.
- EZ inflation shifted dovishly in December, setting up a bigger drop in Q1 than the ECB expected…
- …The ECB prefers to sit out near-term volatility in inflation; that preference will be tested in Q1.
- German retail sales growth likely improved slightly over Q4, despite the fall in November.
- Risks have swung to a downside surprise in today’s EZ HICP, and the ECB’s forecasts being too hawkish.
- Markets are currently pricing in almost no chance of a further rate cut in H1; that will change soon.
- The EZ PMI is holding on for a gain over Q4, but the direction of travel across the quarter is downward.
- We look for an upside surprise in this week’s EZ December inflation data, but all eyes are now on Q1.
- Switzerland likely fell into deflation in December, but the SNB remains poised to hold rates steady in Q1.
- We think EZ retail sales beat the consensus in November, but manufacturing likely weakened.
- The hawkish shift in the ECB’s December forecasts has increased the risk of easing in early 2026.
- Growth in Spain was revised down slightly, with inflation staying sticky at the end of 2025.
- EZ M1 growth is stabilising at a modest pace, while manufacturing PMIs signal downside risk to industry.
- EZ inflation and GDP growth have both come in above the ECB’s September estimates lately.
- The ECB is set to revise up its forecasts but keep rates and other policy settings unchanged this week.
- Chances of additional rate cuts are retreating; the ECB easing cycle is over.
- EZ GDP growth picked up more than previously thought in Q3, far surpassing the ECB’s call, 0%.
- We reiterate our forecast for GDP to rise by 0.2% in Q4, given our estimates for the big four.
- GDP growth will pick up in H1 next year, but probably by less than we previously thought.
- EZ inflation surprised slightly to the upside in November, matching our forecast.
- Energy inflation is being lifted by widening refining margins but is still low, and set to plunge in January.
- Core goods inflation is likely stabilising at just over 0.5%, with services set to drift lower into 2026.
- A hawkish German HICP keeps our forecast for Eurozone headline inflation at 2.2% for November…
- …but the details in Friday’s early EZ inflation numbers, however, tilt dovish, especially for the core.
- EZ retail sales likely had a slow start to Q4, due to weakness in Spain and Germany.
- German Q3 growth was hit by falling consumption, but the spending details are better than the headline.
- Investment in Germany is stabilising, but we’re yet to see evidence of the much hoped-for recovery.
- Jump in government spending was mainly due to welfare spending, but borrowing is rising fast.
- We think this week’s inflation data for November will continue to signal Eurozone inflation above 2% in Q4.
- The acceleration in money supply growth is easing, but it still indicates decent GDP growth.
- Early Q4 spending data are mixed: we see strength in France and Spain, softness in Germany.
- The tiny fall in the EZ composite PMI in November still leaves it pointing to stronger GDP growth in Q4.
- The PMIs also indicate rising price pressures, signalling little need for another ECB cut this year.
- EZ negotiated wage growth dropped in Q3, but this is not the start of a new trend.
- The EZ current account surplus rose marginally in September; a strong euro will bring it down in 2026.
- Foreign investors have moved away from EZ debt and piled into EZ equities over the past year.
- EZ construction output was flat in Q3, after declining in the previous quarter; Q4 will likely be a little better.
- EZ inflation edged down in October, but we still see a near-term rebound to 2.2%, before a fall in January.
- Refining margins are rising, boosting energy inflation, but the trend is still dovish overall.
- Core inflation is set for a small further rise in the near term, before a steady decline over H1 2026.
- Germany’s government will use fiscal policy to lower prices for consumers and firms next year.
- A subsidy to lower electricity prices for energy- intensive industry should lift output in early 2026.
- Germany is set to spend 0.3-to-0.4% of GDP on lower energy prices for consumers and firms.
- The paltry 0.2% increase in EZ GDP in Q3 was confirmed, with minimal new country data.
- Trade figures suggest the drag from net trade in goods in Q2 disappeared in Q3…
- …The main impetus was a jump in exports to the US, which is unlikely to last.
- The ECB is lining up a change in key personnel, but the key transitions are back-loaded to 2027.
- Isabel Schnabel’s departure will almost certainly result in a dovish tilt to the ECB’s communication.
- Investor sentiment has fallen marginally in November but still signals a solid composite PMI.
- A Q4 supply crunch in EZ auto production is averted, but the Nexperia controversy could flare up again.
- EZ auto production fell sharply in Q3, but leading indicators are improving in Germany.
- Auto sales in the EZ slowed in Q3, and leading indicators point to continued sluggish growth in Q4.
