Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Global Weekly Monitor
- The ZEW confirms the message from the Sentix: investors don’t like the EU-US trade deal.
- Investor sentiment indices still point to a rise in the PMI in the coming months, but we doubt it.
- The EZ economy will struggle now that US tariffs have risen further.
- The shape of the Phillips curve is unstable over time, but its shifts are difficult to pin down with data.
- Data point to a flat PC in the EZ, and a high sacrifice ratio for the ECB, but only for demand-pull inflation.
- Our estimates of the NKPC support our broader call that EZ inflation will ultimately settle above 2%.
- National data for Q2 suggest a rise in EZ negotiated wage growth after a plunge in Q1.
- Early data for Q3 are mixed, but stable inflation points to wage growth holding broadly steady ahead.
- Falling Irish and German industrial production mean EZ industry had a difficult end to Q2.
- Industrial production in Germany plunged in June, or did it? We are not so sure.
- Green shoots in leading indicators for German capex, but an inventory overhang still looms in H2.
- German exports remain stuck in the mud, and US tariffs add further downside risk in H2.
- Italian industrial output edged up in June, while German turnover figures point to a rise there too.
- EZ industry fared well in Q2, a further correction in Irish production permitting.
- EZ retail sales recorded a decent June and suggest goods spending supported GDP in Q2.
- The EZ PMI was revised down, largely due to a downward revision to France’s already-weak index.
- Spain’s and Italy’s composite PMIs are much higher than those of France and Germany.
- French industrial production soared in June, but mainly on the back of a one-off in transport.
- Swiss headline inflation rose in July, lifting our profile for the coming months…
- ...But downside risks are mounting, not least as we now see a recession in H2 from higher trade tariffs.
- We still expect the SNB to cut its key policy rate by 25bp in September, to -0.25%.
- The July HICP has raised the bar significantly for a September ECB rate cut…
- …But we won’t give up on our call until we see inflation data for August.
- A fall in core inflation, volatile markets, and US economic fragility could still pull a cut over the line.
- HICP inflation held steady in France in July, but dipped in Germany and Italy.
- The month-to-month changes in HICP prices point to EZ headline inflation staying at 2.0% in July.
- EZ unemployment was unchanged at a record low in June; we still expect a small rise by year-end.
- EZ GDP edged higher in Q2, helped by Portugal, Spain and France; Germany and Italy stumbled.
- We’re slightly more upbeat on investment, but we still see Eurozone exports in goods falling by 1% in H2.
- Inflation in Spain jumped in July, threatening our dovish forecast for the EZ HICP.
- Spanish GDP rose by a whopping 0.7% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, after 0.6% in Q1.
- Growth in the Iberian country will now likely slow, but not as much as we previously thought.
- The Spanish and Belgian data—released yesterday—are still consistent with 0.2% growth in the EZ in Q2.
- The US-EU trade deal is a decent outcome for the EZ economy, but it will sting politically in Brussels.
- A relatively small 1% fall in Irish Q2 GDP points to upside risk to this week’s EZ GDP growth print.
- The probability of a September rate cut will increase this week if our July inflation forecasts prove right.
- EZ money supply growth slowed in June, but the trend is solid and the credit impulse improved again.
- IFO expectations in Germany are rising across almost all sectors; is a cyclical upturn underway?
- French consumer confidence rose marginally in July, but Italy’s IESI was held back by services weakness.
- The ECB stood pat, as expected; Ms. Lagarde turned hawkish during the press conference.
- We still think inflation below 2% over the summer will be enough for a 25bp rate cut in September.
- EZ PMIs for July point to resilience, but also continued fragile growth in the core economies.
- Supply and demand analysis on BTPs would suggest a lower yield over the coming years…
- ...But more accurate spread analysis implies it will fall only slightly from current levels out to 2027.
- We expect the BTP-Bund spread to fall to 50bp by year-end and to 30bp by Q1 next year.
- Lending standards for firms were left unchanged in Q2, so they remain tight…
- ...Meanwhile, banks made it harder for households to borrow money, and rejection rates jumped…
- ...Q2’s bank lending survey is one for ECB doves, but only slightly; it won’t prompt a cut this week.
- The ECB will keep its powder dry this week, waiting for the September forecasts to decide its next move.
- The range of forecasts for the ECB’s policy rate next year has widened significantly.
We still see the deposit rate falling below 2% this year, setting up hikes by the end of 2026.
- We’re lowering our Q2 GDP growth forecast for France, but lifting it for Spain and Italy…
- …We now think EZ GDP rose by 0.2% quarter-to-quarter, with the risk tilted to the upside.
- Near-term risks are balanced as we prepare to be marked-to-market on our H2 slowdown call.
- Headline and core inflation remain on track to support a 25bp ECB rate cut by September.
- The key difference between our and the ECB’s latest forecast is that we see inflation rebounding in Q4.
- The outlook for the ECB is bi-modal; the Bank will stay at 2.0% in 2026 if it holds fire in September.
- The EZ goods trade surplus rose in May, but only because imports fell further than exports.
- Our Nowcast model points to upside risks to our forecast for Q2 growth, but it excludes net trade.
- We will update our Q2 growth forecasts on Friday with the EZ construction data for May.
