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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Craig Botham Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)

1 November 2024 Eurozone Monitor A 50bp ECB rate cut in December drifts further into oblivion

  • A trio of strong data tilts the balance of risk further in favour of a 25bp rate cut in December. 
  • Core inflation was firmer than expected in October, and it will increase a touch in November too. 
  • The ECB battle over the neutral rate has begun; Ms. Schnabel likely sees a relatively high number.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Unemployment and State CPIs, Germany, Q3-24/October

In one line: Recession averted (again), labour market weakness continues and upside risks to October inflation.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Q3, France

In one line: Decent, but nothing to write home about ex-Olympic boost.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor Nothing in Q3 GDP to spook the ECB into a 50bp cut in December

  • EZ GDP rose more than we and the ECB had expected in Q3, and growth picked up from Q2. 
  • France, Spain and Germany all contributed positively, while GDP stagnated in Italy. 
  • Advance CPI data in Germany and Spain point to upside risks to EZ core inflation today.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 October 2024 EZ Monitor Reasons to be cheerful about the outlook for the EZ economy

  • Money supply and lending growth picked up further at the end of Q3, a good sign for EZ GDP growth.
  • ECB surveyed inflation expectations dropped in September but will likely rebound in Q4.
  • The IFO survey in Germany improved marginally in October, but the IESI in Italy stumbled.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor October surveys will extend dovish re-rating in EZ rate expectations

  • The dovish shift in expectations for ECB policy and interest rates continues apace. 
  • Soft PMIs will add to the conviction in markets that an accelerated easing cycle is underway… 
  • …But next week’s calendar will likely be more challenging for dovish EZ rate expectations.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor EURUSD will take time to reach 1.15, but it will get there eventually

  • EURUSD won’t make it to 1.15 by year-end, but we still think it will get there, eventually, in H1 2025. 
  • Our inflation, interest rate and GDP forecasts signal upside risks for EURUSD from its current level…
  • …But the trend in political uncertainty points to downside risk to this call. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 October 2024 EZ Monitor BLS supports our--and ECB's--call for faster EZ GDP growth in H2

  • The ECB's Bank Lending Survey points to looser lending standards and rising demand for credit...
  • ...supporting our view that growth in investment and household consumption will turn a corner soon.
  • Nowcast models for Q3 GDP point to downside risks to growth; we think they're misleadingly negative.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Press Conference, October

In one line: Growth indicators are rising in importance for policymakers. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, October

In one line:  The first big win for ECB doves in a long time. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, September

In one line: The trump card ECB doves need for a third rate cut today. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor A good day for ECB doves, but easing will be gradual from here

  • ECB doves claimed a big victory yesterday, but we doubt this is the start of a much quicker easing cycle. 
  • The central bank is now more focused on downside risks to growth; all eyes on growth data in Q4. 
  • EZ inflation fell sharply in September, but it will rebound soon; core inflation is set to dip in Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production/ZEW, Eurozone/Germany, Aug/Oct 2024

In one line: EZ industry escaped recession in Q3; investor sentiment rises again, modestly.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor France's fiscal blues will knock 0.3pp off GDP growth next year

  • We still think French GDP rose solidly in Q3, despite hard data pointing to downside risks. 
  • Government spending in France is set to slow sharply next year, but the hit to GDP should be minor. 
  • We now see GDP in France growing by 1.0% in 2025, 0.3pp below our previous forecast.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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