EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Italy, Q4 2024

In one line: Italian growth fared better than previously thought in Q4, and should now pick up.  

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 March 2025 Eurozone Monitor The ECB will pause in April, conditional on US trade policy

• The ECB is playing it safe; trade uncertainty outweighs upside risks from fiscal stimulus, for now. 
• April is wide open, but the ECB will pause its easing unless it perceives US tariffs on a sustained basis. 
• The ECB has pushed out the point at which inflation hits 2%; it will soon have to abandon the idea entirely.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, February 2025

In one line: A trough, we think.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: PMI, Switzerland, February 2025

In one line: Consistent with another 0.5% q/q increase in GDP in Q1; price pressures rising.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations, EZ, January & Unemployment, Germany, February

In one line: EZ inflation expectations ease back; further increases in German unemployment are on the way.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 March 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ inflation likely undershot the consensus in February

• Eurozone headline and core inflation likely undershot the consensus in February.
• Today’s data should be the first clear sign that EZ services inflation is now falling, from a trend of 4%.
• EZ consumers’ spending on goods saw a slow start to 2025, but don’t write off Q1 just yet.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone