17 January 2025 Eurozone Monitor Little impact from US front-loading or higher tariffs on EVs, so far

• EZ trade rebounded in November, thanks to a bounce-back in exports to the US… 
• ...This is not a clear sign of front-loading, yet, but marks a rebound from US port closures in October. 
• US firms are more focused on China at the moment, which risks limited near-term upside for EZ exports.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Full-Year GDP, Germany, 2024

In one line: Investment is falling off a cliff; what’s the play Mr. Merz?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, France, December 2024

In one line: Dovish; upside risks for the headline in January, but electricity tariffs set to fall sharply in February.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 January 2025 Eurozone Monitor German investment has collapsed; what will the new government do?

• The investment downturn in Germany deepened in 2024; the new government will need to act. 
• This year should be a year of recovery for growth in German household consumption. 
• Headline inflation in France is set for a volatile few months due to big swings in energy prices.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, November 2024

In one line: Improvement in industry in Q4 is partly why we think GDP growth rebounded.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone