3 October 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Surprise leap in Indonesia's surplus in August isn't worth celebrating

Indonesia’s trade surplus surprised massively to the upside in August, but largely on seasonal factors…
…Underlying two-way trade growth continues to ebb; exports are fighting a handful of headwinds.
Inflation rose above BI’s 2.5% target for the first time in over a year, but a Q4 rate cut is still on the table.

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence