- Malaysia’s fiscal budget for 2024 targets a steep cut in the deficit to 4.3% of GDP, from 5.0% this year...
- …But the deficit is likely to be bigger, with the bulk of the adjustment falling to lower subsidy spending.
- The Fiscal Responsibility Bill, if credible, forces the government into stricter austerity measures.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- BI stood pat yesterday after October’s surprise hike; we maintain that easing is just around the corner.
- We no longer expect a fourth 50bp rate cut from the SBV, with M2 growth now clearly turning a corner.
- Jump in Singaporean inflation in October should not distract from a likely sharp drop in November.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysian export growth leapt to -4.4% year-over- year in October, from -13.8% in September...
- ...Supported by friendly base effects, recovering electronics exports and higher commodity prices.
- The factors behind October’s jump are likely to persist over Q4, boosting export growth further.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in Thailand fell to 1.5% in Q3, from 1.8% in Q2, missing the consensus for a bounce...
- ...Quarterly growth firmed up, but only because imports hit a wall; the destocking cycle has begun.
- We have cut our GDP outlook and still see a further slowdown in 2024 to 2.2%, from 2.4% this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A massive, but perverse, net trade boost saves Thai Q3 GDP from a complete car crash
Export growth in Malaysia jumps even, as it remains flat in nominal terms
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Momentum in Singaporean exports builds, supported by base effects
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean export growth continued to recover in October, albeit boosted by friendly base effects...
- …The improvement in nominal terms appears more modest, as external demand remains weak.
- Overall, though, trade should provide a larger boost to Q4 GDP, on the back of this improvement.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BSP held its target reverse repo rate at 6.50% yesterday, following October’s out-of-cycle hike...
- ...Its hawkish blind spot fails to recognise that policy will tighten markedly in 2024 even if it stays on hold.
- Two-way trade growth in Indonesia continued to recover in October, but the devil is in the detail.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A sensible pause, after October’s rash out-of-cycle hike.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s trade deficit plunged to an historic low of -$31.5B in October, due partly to painful seasonals.
- Negative oil effects will soon reverse, and we welcome the October bounce in non-oil imports.
- Upstream price pressures remain benign, making soon-to-be-sticky CPI inflation easier to swallow.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Why we aren’t panicking about the record deficit.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We expect India’s Q3 GDP at end-November to show a big drop in growth to 4.2%, from 7.8% in Q2.
- The flattering boost from discrepancies in Q2 is unreliable, and consumption was weak in Q3.
- Disinflation, which continued in October, will likely partly unwind in the short run, due to onion prices.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Slowing core inflation will make the next few months of headline stubbornness easier to swallow.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A broad-based moderation, as favourable base effects reverse partially.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thailand’s Q3 GDP report next Monday should show a leap in growth to 2.9%, from 1.8% in Q2…
- …But this will be due largely to a material drop in imports; domestic demand likely weakened further.
- Retail sales momentum in Indonesia remains lackluster, keeping price-hike expectations at bay.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Government spending saves the Philippines’ Q3 GDP
Philippine sales entered Q4 with encouraging momentum
Indonesian retail sales will be ending 2023 still below the pre-Covid level
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in the Philippines surprised to the upside in Q3, leaping to 5.9%, from 4.3% in Q2...
- ...But largely thanks to an unsustainable bounce in public spending; fiscal consolidation isn’t over.
- Consumption continues to slow amid weak balance sheets, while lacklustre investment is here to stay.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Proof that the BSP’s out-of-cycle rate hike was rash
The Philippines’ smallest deficit in almost a year isn’t exactly good news
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
