Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)
- Taiwan’s consensus-beating Q1 GDP print was driven by a strong recovery in net trade…
- …But less friendly base effects and still-soft export volumes point to growth slowing from Q2.
- All told, we have raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast to 3.7%, from 3.4%, after Q1’s hot print.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Headline inflation in Taiwan nosedived to 2.1% in March, after jumping to 3.1% in February…
- …As positive Lunar New Year demand effects reversed sharply; food base effects helped too.
- Food prices should drag more on the headline, but upward risks from energy and services have risen.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean headline inflation increased to 3.4% in February, from 2.9%, on festive demand…
- …But, with goods disinflation well-behaved and one-off increases factored in, inflation is likely to fall.
- In Malaysia, new water tariffs caused headline inflation to rise in February, to 1.8% from 1.5%.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In an unexpected move, the Taiwanese central bank raised its discount rate to 2.000% yesterday…
- …Its main worry appears to be the impending rise in electricity tariffs, likely to come in April.
- The improving economic outlook has given the CBC space, but this hike is likely 'one -and- done'.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean exports fell into the red in February; blame Lunar New Year seasonal distortions...
- ...Export growth will likely resume its recovery path, albeit at a more gradual pace for most of H1.
- Malaysian export growth slowed in February, dragged down by a sharp drop in re-exports.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Consumer demand in Singapore remains healthy, despite the Lunar New Year hit to Jan. retail sales.
- The rebound in Philippine food inflation won’t last, but it pushes back the likely first rate cut to June.
- Deflation in Thailand has finally turned a corner; expect to see a muted return to the black in Q2.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The MAS maintained the appreciative slope of its S$NEER policy band at its January meeting...
- ...As it reiterated the current elevated core inflation outlook, while downplaying growth concerns.
- We see the MAS digging in to rein in core inflation, maintaining the policy band for the rest of 2024.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BNM remained on hold at its January meeting, keeping its policy rate at 3.00%...
- ...Even though core and headline inflation are falling; significant uncertainty surrounds the outlook.
- The pace and strength of the recovery in export growth should determine the BNM’s next move .
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean inflation picked up unexpectedly in December to 3.7%, from 3.6% in November...
- ...As a rise in transport and services inflation offset the impact from continued food disinflation.
- With inflation uncomfortably high, while the growth outlook remains weak, the MAS is likely to hold.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Inflation in Malaysia cooled last year, dropping to 2.5%, from 3.4% in 2022...
- ...Helped by fuel deflation in early 2023, while food disinflation gathered strength in Q4.
- The BNM is likely to stay put at tomorrow’s meeting, with inflation below its pre-pandemic average.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysian retail sales growth increased to 4.4% in November, from 3.9% in October...
- ...Supported by friendlier base effects and seasonal spending, which offset moderating price growth.
- We expect retail sales growth to stabilise around 5-to-6% this year, as employment growth wanes.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Q4 GDP growth in Singapore surprised to the upside, jumping to 2.8%, from 1.0% in Q3...
- ...Boosted by a rebound in the manufacturing sector and robust construction activity.
- We will look to upgrade our 2024 forecast of 1.7% if external demand continues to hold up in Q1.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysian export growth fell in November, but this was expected, due to unfriendly base effects…
- … And it should not be extrapolated as a sign of slowing export growth momentum.
- Headline growth in December will likely increase on the back of a turnaround in electronics exports.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean export growth finally returned to the black in November after 13 months…
- …But the recovery is likely to be gradual, as weak demand weighs on the pace of inventory clearance.
- The slow march in electronics exports will likely show more strongly next year.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysian export growth leapt to -4.4% year-over- year in October, from -13.8% in September...
- ...Supported by friendly base effects, recovering electronics exports and higher commodity prices.
- The factors behind October’s jump are likely to persist over Q4, boosting export growth further.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BNM maintains the overnight policy rate at 3.00% at its November meeting...
- ...As it prioritised supporting domestic demand while using FX intervention to support the MYR.
- We expect the BNM to hold rates steady for most of 2024, cutting rates only once by 25bp in Q4.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
