- In one line: Food inflation remains frustratingly sticky; clearer signs that core has bottomed-out.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: LPG price cut pulls inflation down below 5% for the first time since October; don’t be fooled by the jolt in IP growth.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Delaying our first RBI rate cut call to August; industry is floundering, forget the H2 2023 ’strength’ in GDP.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Feel free to continue ignoring the rosy headline.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Still waiting on the onion price correction to show in CPI; the trend in IP growth is clearly one of moderation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The run-up to 2024 was devoid of upward momentum.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Still-lofty growth remains very exposed to a further slowdown.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Can’t rely on favourable oil price effects going forward.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The CPI report has yet to pick-up the correction in onion prices; don’t panic over the Diwali-related crash in IP growth.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: We told you not to panic about October’s record deficit; you’re welcome.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The seven-month bout of WPI deflation in India comes to an end
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The worst of the recent food price surge is over; Diwali calendar effects flatter October IP massively.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Don’t worry too much about the October crash in Philippine exports
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Encouraging start to Q4 for Indonesian retail sales, but dark clouds loom
Weak start to Malaysian private consumption in Q4
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The RBI still isn’t showing any appetite for normalisation
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Deflation in Thailand will stay for at least one more month
A reminder that any recovery in Philippine domestic demand will be bumpy
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
India’s PMIs are entering 2024 with waning momentum
Weak start to Singaporean retail sales in Q4
Target range inflation in the Philippines is around the corner
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Only a small respite for ASEAN manufacturing in November
The mean-reversion in Indian’s manufacturing PMI remains largely intact
Adverse food price base effects in Indonesia will now unwind
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia