Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Emerging Asia Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- Indonesia’s small April trade surplus was due to seasonals; a C/A surplus in 2026 is now possible…
- …The big improvement in headline export growth was no fluke; the commodity lift will last till year-end.
- We’ve raised our 2026 inflation forecast to 3.4%, but also lowered our 2027 call to 2.7%.
- Our final forecast sees India’s Q1 GDP slumping to 6.4%, well short of the 7.2% consensus…
- …We’re with the consensus that the RBI will hold; hawkish views look over-eager with CPI below 6%.
- May CPI for the Philippines and Thailand should come in softer than expected, at 7.5% and 2.3%.
- In one line: A welcome bounce, as war risks continue to recede.
- In one line: Headline still normalising; April consumption shows war squeeze.
Commodity-price surge is piling pressure on the peso
- Thailand’s new co-payment stimulus starts today; we’ve nudged up our 2026 GDP call, to 2.3%…
- …The job market’s revival is a genuine tailwind, though its current form suggests some fragility.
- Philippines’ trade deficit ballooned unexpectedly in April, with commodity prices flattering imports.
BI SHOCKS WITH A 50BP HIKE; Q1 STRENGTH DUBIOUS
- …TAIWAN STILL FLYING, BUT DOWNSIDE RISKS ARE RISING
- Singapore’s inflation was a surprise in April, as it held at 1.8%, despite the Middle East oil shock...
- ...Falling health premiums helped to moderate inflation, while transport inflation wasn’t that bad.
- Taiwan’s consumption stayed robust in April, notwithstanding the Middle East crisis.
- Thailand’s trade deficit blowout in April was caused to a large extent by a violent swing in seasonals…
- …But the adjusted gap still hit a record low; we’ve cut our 2026 current account forecast to -1.5%.
- The oil-price boost to yearly import growth should peak soon, but exports are losing momentum too.
- Indian factories are hurting more from the war, but the worst of the bleeding in exports looks done…
- …Oil products will eventually respond to the price signal; Russian imports are a stop-gap for crude.
- We’ve raised our 2026 CPI call to a still-dovish 3.9% after correcting an error in our food-price tracker.
Indian manufacturing still struggling; pop in prices fading
- In one line: Still losing momentum at the margin.
- In one line: Huge—defensive—hike.
- BI surprised almost everyone with a larger-than-expected 50bp rate hike, amid the IDR’s struggles…
- …This increase should be a one-off; pressure on the IDR will ease and the CPI target still looks secure.
- Malaysian export growth hit 37% in April, as the AI boom further boosted electronics exports.
- GDP growth in Thailand rose unexpectedly in Q1, to 2.8%, but inventories hid a broad domestic easing…
- …We maintain our 2.2% growth forecast for 2026, implying a sustained slowdown to 1.0% by Q4.
- India’s scorching WPI print was no surprise to us, and we find much comfort in still-tepid WPI food.
Thai growth sees a natural payback from the interim government pop
Analysts were also too gloomy on Singapore exports
- In one line: Some reassuring developments, but take the y/y leaps with a pinch of salt.
- In one line: Hot, thanks to the naturally delayed oil boost.
- Headline inflation in India was much softer than expected in April, merely inching up to 3.5%...
- ...Low food-price base effects were the sole reason; our daily food tracker points to a big reversal in May.
- We’ve cut our 2026 average inflation forecast to 3.4%, even if diesel prices are raised by up to 8%.
- In one line: Food price pressures at the margin are collapsing.
