EM Asia Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision, August 2025

• In one line: A less-dovish cut, but expect at least one more before the end of 2025.

August 2025- Emerging Asia Chartbook

BI—RIGHTLY—ISN’T BUYING THE ‘STRONG’ Q2 GDP

• …TAIWAN’S EXPORT OUTPERFORMANCE HAS STAYING POWER

29 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor BSP hints strongly at end of cuts, but we're not in the "sweet spot" yet

• The BSP eased policy further yesterday, by 25bp, cutting the TRR rate to 5.00%, as widely expected…
• …But its rhetoric was much less dovish; Governor Remolona now thinks the rate is in the “sweet spot”.
• We continue to see one more cut, but this is unlikely to come until December, after the Q3 GDP report.

27 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Thai exports have just US front-running to thank for the July beat

• Thai exports beat expectations in July, but US front-running will end soon and we see little else to cheer.
• Singapore’s July’s CPI was soft, but it will take a lot more than this to convince the MAS to ease again.
• Taiwan retail sales fell again in July, as discretionary spending remains under pressure.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 21 August 2025

India’s flash PMIs for August shrug off Trump’s 50% tariff threat

EM Asia Datanote: Core IP, India, July

• In one line: A reassuring and much-needed turn in overall momentum and, especially, in electricity production.

22 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Recovery in India's PMIs finally entering a meaningful stage

• India’s PMIs continue to shrug off the tariff noise— even the 50% threat—with the August data punchy…
• …Partial Q3 PMIs point to a continuation of near-7% GDP growth, but watch the slump in future output.
• Our final forecast for next week’s Q2 GDP report is 7%, implying only a minor cooling from 7.4% in Q1.

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision, August 2025

• In one line: Acting now, while the space to do so comfortably remains available.

21 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor BI's urgency to cut faster since July in context; expect at least one more

• Bank Indonesia surprised again this month by lowering the BI rate by a further 25bp to 5.00%…
• …We reiterate our 4.75% end-2025 call; the recent food CPI pop is skin-deep and the core is fading.
• Malaysian exports surprised everyone by expanding in July, after two months of contraction.

19 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor A fairly decent Q2, but Thai GDP growth will now slow more sharply

• Thai GDP growth in Q2 was largely in line with expectations, cooling to 2.8% from 3.2%…
• …Export front-loading was still a big part of the story, but this lift should now unwind quickly in H2.
• We still see a broad slowdown, but our 2025 and 2026 forecasts now stand at 2.0% and 1.8%.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 18 August 2025

US tariff themes aplenty in Thailand’s Q2; expect a faster slowdown in H2

18 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Demographics, demographics, demographics...still a big boon

• EM Asia's contribution to world growth continues to rise, thanks in no small part to its demographics…
• …Working-age populations won’t peak for another two decades, but chinks in the armour are emerging.
• We expect a further softening in Thai GDP growth in Q2, to 2.7%; look for a much smaller q/q trade lift.

11 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwan's export growth hits decade high in last month before tariffs

• Taiwan’s exports defied expectations in July, rising 42.0% after June’s already-high 33.7% growth.
• Consensus should have it just right for India’s July CPI; early-August data suggest this was the low.
• This week’s BoT meeting is ‘live’; we think the Bank will hold fire in spite of the majority view for a cut.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 7 August 2025

The Philippines’ Q2 GDP was a skin-deep, consensus-beating print
Sales numbers show worsening momentum heading into Q3

8 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Philippines' market-beating Q2 GDP doesn't stand up to scrutiny

• The Philippines’ Q2 GDP beat expectations slightly, with yearly growth ticking up to 5.5% from 5.4%…
• …But this was down largely to a misleading U-turn in net exports, masking a weakening domestically.
• We reiterate our below-consensus 5.3% forecast for 2025, implying a renewed slowdown in H2.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 August 2025

The RBI holds—understandably—in spite of the tariff let-down
An initial sign that the front-loading of Vietnamese exports to the US is over
A decent start to Q3 for still-depressed Vietnamese retail sales
Transport deflation re-steepens in Vietnam; it's here to stay, for now
June leap in Thai food inflation reverses completely

7 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor RBI's hands not tied in October, when we expect one final 25bp cut

• The RBI stood pat this month, commendabl­y in the wake of the tariff outcry; we still see one more cut.
• Vietnamese exports comfortably beat expectations in July, but US front-loading looks finally to be over.
• Taiwan inflation edged up, on higher education and entertainment costs, though this is likely temporary.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 August 2025

Big investment rebound drives Indonesia’s Q2 upside surprise
July should mark the low for Philippine inflation, but short-term downside risks dominate

6 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Two things stood out in Indonesia's Q2 surprise: one clear, one hidden

• Indonesia’s Q2 GDP defied expectations, with growth rising to 5.1% on the back of investment…
• …Consumption was stable, unsurprisingly, but our more realistic proxy series shows a Q2 jump.
• The Philippines’ soft July CPI print was no surprise to us, but should mark the low of the current cycle.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 August 2025

Early US trade deals in July help ASEAN manufacturing find its feet, for now
Indonesian export growth is in for a weaker H2
Discount the base effects lifting Indonesian food inflation; the headline should now stabilise