Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Emerging Asia Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
Worst of the deficit widening in Thailand is hopefully in the rear-view mirror
- Taiwan’s retail trade has been hit less hard by the oil shock; the AI bubble bursting would be much worse.
- The BoT is rightly becoming more at ease with inflation, but its forecasts are still too pessimistic…
- …We’ve raised our 2026-to-27 current account forecasts to -1.5% and 0.0% given the oil-price drop.
- In one line: A much more comfortable hold.
India's June PMIs show immediate relief on prices post-MoU, not so much for activity
Singapore's inflation shock seems to have already faded
- The US-Iran deal barely registered in India’s headline PMIs, which still point to sub-par growth…
- …The price indices continue to cool, at least, but the risks to still-low core inflation remain to the upside.
- Singaporean inflation was quite soft in May; we see broad headline stability from here on out.
- In one line: Hit mainly by refined oil products, but overall momentum is sagging.
- In one line: An insurance hike, on top of last week's off-cycle insurance hike.
- In one line: Still anxious about inflation, in spite of recent positive developments.
- BI is becoming more certain that the Fed will hike, pointing to one more rate rise, though we disagree.
- The BSP’s higher CPI forecasts are bemusing, but it’s now rightly mulling an end to tightening.
- The CBC holds, as expected, while also still seeing 2026 average CPI staying below the key 2% mark.
- Singapore’s non-oil domestic export growth reached an astonishing new high, at 38.4% in May…
- …And Q2 should be stronger than we had previously expected, thanks to oil exports and electronics.
- We’ve raised our 2026 current account forecast for India to -1.5% of GDP, from -3.0%, with oil receding.
- In one line: Demand from the Middle East continues to normalise; oil boost to imports will eventually correct.
- In one line: June should mark the peak before a precipitous collapse in H2.
- The improved outlook for global oil prices is unlikely to benefit Indian consumers immediately, if at all.
- WPI will almost certainly peak soon, however; we see a lower 2026 average of 6.5% and 2027 of 0.9%.
- The mean reversion up in food inflation will pause briefly, but upside risks, especially for 2027, prevail.
- In one line: Mean-reversion up in food inflation should now start to plateau.
War hit to Indonesian retail sales is here, and we've likely not seen the worst of it
- BI shocked with an off-cycle 25bp hike this week, likely removing the need for another one next week.
- Its Fed and C/A views are overly bearish, while the foreign equity rout may be just a one-off adjustment.
- Retail sales growth crashed into the red in April, somewhat unfairly, but the worst is still to come.
- The RBI’s twin worries, over fading growth and rising inflation, point to a continued rate standstill…
- …We’ve upped our 2026 growth call to 7.0%, but the details of the ‘strong’ Q1 GDP aren’t convincing.
- Philippine and Thai CPI surprised to the downside in May, as we predicted; the BSP is still likely to hike.
Still no signs of fragility in the bullet train that is Vietnamese trade
Real sales growth continues to track softer in Q2
Small inflation uptick, but still uncomfortably above the SBV's ceiling
- The underlying strength in Vietnamese exports looks set to persist into the third quarter, at least…
- …But the monthly data at large suggest strongly that GDP growth, in reality, will likely cool in Q2.
- The fuel-price U-turn has yet to show in CPI; we’ve cut our 2026 call to 4.9% but raised 2027 to 3.6%.
ASEAN manufacturing is finally starting to stabilise
Food drives the initial bounce-back in Indonesian inflation
Commodity-price boost to Indonesian two-way trade is finally here
