Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Emerging Asia Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- In one line: Look for a change in strategy—to RRR cuts—next year.
- In one line: Expect a quick follow-up cut in February.
- BI kept its benchmark rate at 4.75%, in line with most expectations; the real rate is close to neutral…
- …Its tone remains dovish, and we continue to believe next year will see a tactical shift to RRR cuts.
- The BoT resumed easing with a 25bp cut; we still expect a quick follow-up cut at February’s meeting.
An anticlimactic end for India’s PMIs to 2025
Q3 SHOULD BE THE PEAK IN INDIA’S ABSURD GDP DATA
- …TAIWANESE EXPORTS SHOWING NO SIGN OF PAUSING
- India’s PMIs continued to roll over in December, altogether pointing to a Q4 GDP growth U-turn…
- …The future output sub-index is going from bad to worse, adding weight to our downbeat 2026 view.
- A plunge in gold imports drove the shrinkage of the trade gap last month, but US exports are bouncing.
- In one line: Historic leap in gold imports in October unwinds dramatically.
Upstream food price pressures in India are reviving more noticeably
- In one line: Muddied by residual seasonality, but vegetable-price pressures are reviving.
- The November bounce in Indian inflation was due mainly to lingering Diwali-related noise in food…
- …Supply points to a persistent rise in food CPI in 2026, but low expectations will be a ‘core’ anchor.
- Malaysian retail sales growth is still flat, but the government is trying to boost tourism for 2026.
BSP easing “nearing its end”, but we still see a terminal rate of 4.25%
- The BSP eased policy further this month, cutting its
benchmark rate by a further 25bp to 4.50%…
- …We still see a terminal rate of 4.25%; growth
worries are likely to continue to outweigh CPI risks.
- Indonesian sales growth looks set to hit a 20-month
high in November, but it may also soon hit a ceiling.
A clear, but fragile, recovery in Indonesian sales growth
Negative sales readings in the Philippines are imminent, at this rate
- Export growth in Vietnam disappointed again in November, as US shipments continue to flail…
- …Overall downside risks are receding though, and the Q4 data point to still-healthy GDP growth.
- Inflation in Taiwan eased sharply in November to 1.2%, but purely due to high base effects.
RBI not buying 8%-plus growth either, but taking the chance before CPI mean-reverts
Already-low food inflation in the Philippines continues to backslide
- The RBI resumed easing, cutting by a further 25bp, but we still believe this was its last reduction…
- …The MPC’s tone was more neutral, and the mean reversion up in CPI in 2026 will lower real rate s.
- Philippine inflation missed to the downside in November, adding weight to our dovish BSP call.
- Thailand’s November CPI prints were firmer than expected, but we still see an MPC cut this month.
- We’ve raised our 2025 forecast to -0.1%, while simultaneously cutting our 2026 call to 0.0%…
- … Another power tariff cut is scheduled for January, and underlying inflation pressures are non- existent.
Food inflation returns to the black in Thailand
- Taiwan’s Q3 GDP growth was revised up to 8.2%—a 0.6pp rise— driven by a bigger boost from net trade.
- More granular data on investment reveals its overall weakness was due to inventory drawdown.
- India’s IP and GST readings for Q4-to-date are less alarming once Diwali noise is stripped out.
