Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economist)
- In one line: Lunar New Year distortions.
- In one line: Spending on big items is failing to recover.
- In one line: Members hold rates, but seem spooked by the Middle East crisis.
Don’t read too much into the Lunar New Year noise in Singapore’s January sales
Returning food inflation drives Philippine inflation up higher; BSP target still safe
- Malaysian exports continue to defy expectations, soaring by 19.6% in January, due to the AI boom…
- …CPI inflation remains elevated, but only because of a sewerage cost increase that affected housing.
- Singaporean core inflation showed a surprise seasonally adjusted month-to-month decline.
- Taiwan’s exports soared by 69.9% in January, with AI demand still overwhelming supply…
- ...though base effects, Lunar New Year distortion and less front-loading point to cooling ahead.
- AI demand could soften near term, due to lack of data centre readiness and delayed deployment.
- In one line: Export growth surge never seems to stop.
- In one line: Big disinflation surprise, due to Lunar New Year noise.
- Taiwan’s Q4 GDP growth surged to a blockbuster 12.7%, above the unjustifiable 8.8% consensus...
- …Exports did the heavy lifting, though even we were taken aback by the rebound in consumption.
- The MAS held policy steady; we see little need for tightening with imported inflation still non-existent.
- In one line: Can’t catch a break.
- BNM held the OPR at 2.75% yesterday, in line with expectations, prolonging its ongoing pause.
- For now, AI-driven export strength should continue, meaning no rate cuts in 2026.
- Subdued inflation should leave the door open to a rate cut in the event of an economic shock.
- In one line: Another no-move meeting, with optimism building.
- Malaysian exports blew past expectations in December; analysts underestimated the AI boom...
- …We have upgraded our 2026 GDP forecast, as we think AI demand will remain firm for some time.
- Malaysia’s inflation ticked up in December, but we consider this a one-off not a re-acceleration.
AI boom saves Malaysian exports
Malaysian inflation shows a surprise rise
- Malaysia’s Q4 GDP growth beat expectations, at 5.7%, largely because of export manufacturing...
- …This bolsters our call for the BNM to hold rates this Thursday, saving policy space for later.
- We think economic growth should be stronger in 2026, but this is contingent on the AI boom.
- In one line: Export growth eases, but Q4 GDP remains on track for a millennia-high.
Sales growth in Malaysia dips
- Singapore ended 2025 strongly, with GDP growth accelerating to 5.7% in Q4, from 4.3% in Q3.
- Manufacturing drove the uptick, led by pharmaceuticals and electronics exports…
- …We think the headline was inflated by tariff-related front-loading that could fade in coming quarters.
- Taiwan’s CBC held rates steady last week; strong growth has removed the need for easing…
- …Still, growth is increasingly precarious, with exports—and GDP—heavily reliant on the AI boom.
- The silver lining is the CBC can now save a rate cut for when a genuine shock materialises.
