CHINA+ DATA WRAP 17.01.22 - A mostly stronger than expected end to 2021 in China

Manufacturing props up Q4 growth as quarterly momentum improves

Industrial production sprints into the finish

Property was still a hefty headwind in December

A terrible month for the consumer

A modest policy salve

Craig BothamChina+

14 Jan 2022 Credit Growth is Grease to the Wheels, not Fuel for the Fire

• China's money and credit growth improved in December, but this isn't a stimulus surge.
• The authorities are laying down the groundwork to bail out swathes of the economy.
• We expect the Q4 GDP reading to be the weakest since the start of the pandemic.

Craig BothamChina+

4 Jan 2022 Bright in Patches, but a Largely Dismal End to China's 2021

• Despite some apparent good news, early data point to marginal weakening in growth in December.
• Policymakers are delivering more initiatives, but they will only cushion the fall.
• Bad news on Sinovac efficacy versus Omicron means reopening is pushed back a year, at least.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Dec 2021 Infrastructure is Still En Route, but Other Headwinds are Forming

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15.12.21 - Slower growth in November as infrastructure bides its time

The property sector slowdown intensified in November

Investment struggles, led by real estate

Industrial production improves but still underwhelms

The Singles Day hangover hits retail sales

Liquidity day from the PBoC

Craig BothamChina+

13 Dec 2021 Slow and Steady in November as Policymakers Double Down

• Early Chinese data point to a stabilisation—at low levels— of economic activity.
• Infrastructure investment likely rose in November, partially offsetting the property slowdown.
• Prepare for a harsher crackdown on the private sec- tor in 2022, and more infrastructure spending.

Craig BothamChina+

1 Dec 2021 Stability and the Easing of Stagflation Risk in China

• Chinese economic momentum stabilised in November, thanks to policy action.
• The end of the energy crisis has boosted output, and eased some bottlenecks.
• Infrastructure support looks to be arriving, propping up construction as property struggles.

Craig BothamChina+

25 Nov 2021 Infrastructure Spending is Coming, but Less than you Hope

• Policymakers are low on options to support economic growth amidst multiple headwinds.
• Infrastructure investment is the surest way to ensure money is actually spent...
• ...But local governments may still have difficulties spending it, given a lack of viable projects.

Craig BothamChina+

17 Nov 2021 Japan's Recovery Can't Afford Policy Mistakes

• Japanese growth fell sharply in Q3, as both consumption and capex declined.
• A near-term rebound is on the cards, as temporary headwinds fade.
• Beyond Q4, however, growth needs policy support merely to return to, let alone surpass, its trend.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Nov 2021 Chinese Industry Avoids Calamity, but Q4 Looks Set for Weakness

• China's October activity data were better than ex- pected, but chiefly reflecting a low bar.
• Industrial production growth staved off collapse, but is still near multi-decade lows.
• The property sector is a chronic, and building, headwind for the economy.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15.11.21

Fixed asset investment pulled down by property

Industry’s turnaround is built on a narrow base, but it should broaden

Retail sales are likely enjoying a false dawn

Craig BothamChina+

12 Nov 2021 Halloween is Over, but China will Provide a Late October Scare

• China's economy likely slowed in October, as energy outages worsened and property stress spread.
• We think recent excitement over property sector stimulus is misplaced.
• Retail sales should do better than expected, but it won't last.

Craig BothamChina+

11 Nov 2021 Chinese Inflation Spikes, but Policymakers Won't Panic

• Food and energy prices drove Chinese consumer price inflation sharply higher in October.
• Partial energy liberalisation, coupled with soaring coal prices, led to record PPI inflation.
• We think both spikes will be transitory, and will not necessitate a monetary policy response.

Craig BothamChina+

28 Oct 2021 A Brief Interlude for Chinese Industrial Profits

• Profits surprisingly accelerated in September, de- spite widespread disruption...
• ...Digging deeper, profits look relatively anaemic, with the improvement driven by transitory factors.
• Margin squeezes are persisting, and profits should come back to reality in October.

Craig BothamChina+

27 Oct 2021 It Never Rains but It Pours for the Chinese Property Sector

• A new property tax pilot reform provides a long run- way to a long-awaited policy.
• The signalling effect alone will weigh further on property prices and sales, despite a five-year trial.
• Chinese property's glory days are well and truly finished.

Craig BothamChina+

19 Oct 2021 China's Policymakers Unmoved, Despite a Sharper Slowdown

• Growth slowed in September, as energy shortages and property market weakness hit the economy.
• Industrial production, investment and GDP all reflected elements of the twin crises.
• Policymakers remain sanguine, even so, and still have some wriggle-room on their growth target.

Craig BothamChina+

18 Oct 2021 China's Cost Shock Creates Problems Everywhere

• Surging factory gate prices have just begun to re- flect recent energy shocks.
• The Chinese consumer may be shielded from the energy hit, but China's economy will still suffer.
• Global spillovers seem likely, with further cost in- creases to come as winter looms.

Craig BothamChina+

15 Oct 2021 The Evergrande Fiasco and Energy Prices Will Spoil the Recovery

• A weak third quarter GDP print for China is a certainty, with the economy facing multiple headwinds.
• Early data hint at the damage done, but September is just the start.
• The real pain from the dual crises will be felt in Q4 and beyond.

Craig BothamChina+

14 Oct 2021 Supply Chain Disruptions are Visible, Despite Export Strength

• Expectations for a Chinese export slowdown in September were confounded...
• ...But this was due chiefly to one-off factors, and imports showed the impact of China's crises.
• Exports will falter next month, and supply chains will feel the added pressure.

Craig BothamChina+

29 Sept 2021 September Storms Cloud China's Growth Outlook

• The energy crisis and Evergrande's distress prompt downgrades to our growth outlook.
• Energy shortages will likely have the bigger short term impact, with Evergrande a chronic problem.
• Uncertainty over the fate of the property sector leaves risks skewed to the downside.

Craig BothamChina+