Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Asia Publications

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Investment

13 Jan 2021 China's 2020 GDP Number Likely will see Significant Revisions

China's 2020 GDP Number Likely will see Significant Revisions

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)12th Jan 2021 19:00Asia

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15th December 2020

The firmer monthly rise in Chinese production is questionable; Deepening retail price deflation in China masks punchy Singles' Day boost to sales; The catch-up in...

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)15th Dec 2020 04:29Asia

13 Nov 2020 Japan's Sturdy Q3 GDP Rebound will be a Tough Act to Follow

Japan's GDP report for the third quarter, due on Monday, is likely to show that the economy rebounded by 5.2% quarter-on-quarter, following the 7.9% collapse in Q2.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)12th Nov 2020 19:10Asia

28 Oct 2020 Korea's Q3 GDP Bounce is Likely to be Downgraded, Q4 will be Softer

Korea is officially out of recession, with GDP rising by 1.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, following the 3.2% plunge in Q2.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)27th Oct 2020 14:10Asia

27 Oct 2020 Japan is Trying to "Live with Covid", but Spending is Hitting a Ceiling

Japan and Korea dealt with their second waves of Covid-19 in the third quarter in completely different ways.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)26th Oct 2020 20:10Asia

ASIAN DATA WRAP 19th October 2020

A full-year GDP contraction in China--in reality--still is on the cards

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)19th Oct 2020 06:20Asia

2 Sep 2020 Unlock 4.0 in India can only do so Much to Repair the Severe Hit in Q2

India's GDP shrank by 23.9% year-over-year in the second quarter, following growth of 3.1% in Q1.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)1st Sep 2020 20:10Asia

18 Aug 2020 Japan's Recovery from the Q2 Carnage is Already Disappointing

Japan's economy shrank by an historic 7.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, much worse than the 0.6% slip in the first quarter.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)17th Aug 2020 20:10Asia

24 July 2020 Korea's Abysmal Q2 Likely was the Low, but the Recovery is Fragile

Korea's GDP report for the second quarter was a huge let-down.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)23rd Jul 2020 20:10Asia

20 July 2020 Is the Bank of Korea's Easing Cycle Over? Not Quite

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea voted unanimously last week to keep the benchmark base rate unchanged, at 0.50%.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)19th Jul 2020 20:10Asia

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 July 2020

China's consensus-beating Q2 GDP signals that it is done easing. Chinese industry drove the Q2 rebound... now comes the hard part. The recovery in manufacturing capex in China...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)16th Jul 2020 12:14Asia

15 May 2020 Japan's H1 GDP will be Horrible, Spread of Damage is Less Certain

Japan's GDP likely dropped by 1.1% quarter- on-quarter in the first quarter, even from the favourable Q4 base, when it fell by 1.8%.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)14th May 2020 20:10Asia

24 Apr 2020 Korea's Covid-19 Slump Will Evolve From Domestic- to Trade-Led in Q2

Korean GDP contracted by 1.4% quarter-on- quarter in Q1, erasing the 1.3% jump at the end of last year. The pullback was sharper than we expected, with the cliff-edge drop in...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)23rd Apr 2020 20:10Asia

22 Apr 2020 Contraction is Certain, but Look for Korea's Q1 GDP Report to Surprise

Tomorrow's Q1 GDP report for Korea has a wider spread of forecasts than usual, reflecting Covid-19's uneven hit to the economy.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)21st Apr 2020 20:10Asia

20 Apr 2020 Chinese GDP Seems Unlikely to Rise in 2020, given the Q1 Drop

It happened! Before Q1, Chinese GDP year-over- year growth had moved by no more than two tenths of a percentage point for years.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)19th Apr 2020 20:10Asia

17 Mar 2020 There is Nothing Remotely Like Q1 in Historical Chinese Data

We lack an adjective sufficiently strong to describe China's February activity data.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)16th Mar 2020 20:10Asia

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 Mar 2020 part 2

China's retail sector is on its knees at best. China's IP data suggest that the horrendous PMIs underplayed the carnage. A damning FAI report... tertiary capex should...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)16th Mar 2020 05:00Asia

16 Mar 2020 Damaged Global Demand will Curtail China's Recovery Potential

The sharply increased virus spread outside China has lead to a serious downgrade in the global GDP growth outlook.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)15th Mar 2020 20:10Asia

10 Mar 2020 Expect China's Imports to Deteriorate Further this Month

China's trade balance flipped to an unadjusted deficit of $7.1B in the first two months of the year, from a $47.2B surplus in December.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)9th Mar 2020 20:10Asia

5 Mar 2020 Does the Fed's Cut Open the Asian Floodgates for Rate Reductions

The Fed's unscheduled 50bp cut on Tuesday opens up some space for Asian central banks to follow suit.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)4th Mar 2020 19:10Asia

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