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The Caixin manufacturing PMI confirmed a healthy rebound for China in June.
Domestic demand, however, remains weak, and data from Korea suggest external demand is fading.
Japanese inflation surprised to the downside in June, reinforcing the BoJ’s dovish position.
Chinese industrial profits fell again in May, despite the reopening from lockdown.
Government support likely propped up profits in some sectors, demand still looks weak.
The PBoC is injecting liquidity again, but this is about quarter-end management, not stimulus.
Japanese CPI inflation was unchanged in May, andremains above the 2% target.
We think inflation will remain above target for the rest of the year, thanks to recent yen weakness.
But the BoJ will still see no reason to hike, with cost-push inflation viewed as “unsustainable”.
Inflation data hint at weak domestic demand, but also point to disinflationary pressures from China.
Food prices are the main driver of CPI inflation, but the PBoC target will only briefly be breached.
Bank lending has turned a corner, but it doesn’t look like the private sector is benefitting.
Employment—the ultimate goal of China’s growth targets—fell further in May, despite reopening.
We expect further support to be rolled out until the situation shows a sustained improvement.
Price pressures still look modest, and consumer inflation likely edged only slightly higher in May.
Fears that China will export inflation as a result of policy stimulus look misplaced, to us.
Stimulus has been predominantly focused on supply-side measures, and should reduce inflation.
Korean exports have improved, but it is too soon to call a turning point in global trade.
Inflation is stabilising in Japan, after its April surge, and we do not expect much movement from here.
Yen weakness has partially reversed, thanks to U.S. data, easing the pressure on the BoJ.
Chinese industry is under pressure, particularly the private sector, and policy offers only limited support.
The BoK hiked rates as expected, to 1.75%, and revised inflation forecasts sharply higher.
Governor Rhee insisted that monetary policy must focus on inflation, despite slowing growth.
A return to neutral implies hikes at every meeting this year, but the BoK looks too bullish on growth.
Japan’s CPI inflation is finally back above its 2% target, but this won’t prompt a change from the BoJ.
The surge has been driven almost entirely by base effects, rather than any pick-up in demand.
Falling rates in China, aimed at propping up the property sector, will have little effect.
Don’t expect the BoJ to change policy, despite reaching its target
PBoC pressure on mortgage lending starts to pay off
Chinese CPI inflation jumped in April, due to soaring food prices, but that will not worry the PBoC.
Zero-Covid has pushed up food prices, even as it depresses core inflation.
The PBoC has joined fiscal policymakers in making announcements with no new information.
Japan’s Tokyo CPI broke through its 2% target, as widely expected, but policy won’t change.
Inflation driven by base effects, and food prices, is seen as unsustainable by the BoJ.
Imported inflation will be viewed in a similar light, so no change in the policy rate is on the horizon.
The BoJ shrugged off currency fears, keeping rates on hold and even leaning into YCC.
Acting as a sign of determination to keep rates capped, markets duly reacted by dumping the yen.
Japan’s Ministry of Finance reacted swiftly, and irritably; intervention now looms on the horizon.
Japanese inflation is still rising, and is all but guaranteed to break through its target in April...
...But the BoJ has already indicated it has no intention of changing tack; rates won't rise this year.
Policymakers are flirting with the idea of currency intervention, but Kuroda won't take the lead.
China's currency is finally succumbing to pressure from multiple fronts, and has further to fall.
The renminbi poses a key constraint to PBoC policy, which Beijing will ultimately override.
April export data from Korea show that China's bat- tle with Covid will weigh heavily on global trade.
Lockdowns and shuttered factories in China appear to be the culprit behind slowing Japanese exports.
Further weakness seems inevitable as Chinese policy tightens, and regional supply chains collapse.
Underperforming exports again raise questions about the benefits of a weaker yen.
China's economy beat expectations in Q1, but is still falling short of the 2022 growth target.
The GDP data probably overstate economic growth, but either way things will get worse in Q2.
The battle with Covid is proving extremely costly; it will necessitate more stimulus, and soon.
China's inflation outlook remains very different to most major economies, despite the energy shock.
The PBoC is able to ease further, with inflation far from its target, but is proving reluctant.
Private sector demand for credit still looks soft, and the PBoC’s power is limited, absent fiscal action.
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