China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
inflation
- Chinese economic momentum stabilised in November, thanks to policy action.
- The end of the energy crisis has boosted output, and eased some bottlenecks.
- Infrastructure support looks to be arriving, propping up construction as property struggles.
Craig BothamChina+
- Headline inflation in Japan is on the rise,though still driven by transitory factors.
- Underlying inflationary pressures remain weak, but should get a brief boost from fiscal policy soon.
- The newest Covid variant generates a huge amount of uncertainty, and carries large downside risks.
Craig BothamChina+
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The Bank of Korea hiked as expected, taking the policy rate to 1.00%, from 0.75%.
Further hikes were made conditional on a plethora of factors, providing plenty of wriggle room.
We expect a pause until mid-2022, as Covid cases spike, and with an election looming in March.
Craig BothamChina+
- Japan's latest fiscal stimulus package is significant, but lacks finesse.
- Consumption does need support, but this is the wrong way to go about it.
- The latest inflation data show the BoJ can focus on supporting fiscal policy, for now.
Craig BothamChina+
- Food and energy prices drove Chinese consumer price inflation sharply higher in October.
- Partial energy liberalisation, coupled with soaring coal prices, led to record PPI inflation.
- We think both spikes will be transitory, and will not necessitate a monetary policy response.
Craig BothamChina+
- Chinese vegetable prices have jumped recently, thanks to bad weather and supply disruptions.
- Food is a substantial part of the Chinese CPI bas- ket, and an inflation spike is on its way.
- A mix of policy and base effects should mean, how- ever, that the spike will be short-lived.
Craig BothamChina+
- The worsening energy crunch weighed heavily on Chinese manufacturing in October.
- Inflationary pressures are building, thanks to energy price liberalisation.
- Shortages of natural gas and fuel remain a risk to production and supply chains.
Craig BothamChina+
- Japanese inflation remains anaemic, no matter which way you slice it...
- ...as a result, Japan looks increasingly isolated among developed market economies.
- Monetary policy divergence will become more pronounced, with consequences for the currency.
Craig BothamChina+
Tokyo inflation lends credence to BoJ messaging
Another day, another injection, another last minute payment
Craig BothamChina+
- Renminbi appreciation has stoked concerns over possible policy intervention.
- The authorities may lean against appreciation, but a big devaluation is not on the cards.
- Depreciation is more likely in 2022, as growth and rate stories diverge.
Craig BothamChina+
- Evergrande and energy take a bite out of GDP growth
- The energy crunch is also visible in industrial production data
- Broad based investment slowdown
- Retail sales
Craig BothamChina+
- Surging factory gate prices have just begun to re- flect recent energy shocks.
- The Chinese consumer may be shielded from the energy hit, but China's economy will still suffer.
- Global spillovers seem likely, with further cost in- creases to come as winter looms.
Craig BothamChina+
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Energy shortages push PPI to fresh heights while food remains the dominant theme for CPI
The immediate impact is felt by industry, but it will spread
Craig BothamChina+
- The BoK struck a hawkish note despite holding rates, strongly suggesting a November hike.
- Household debt remains the focus of policy, but there's a risk of complacency over growth.
- China is still deteriorating, and data over the next fortnight will be just a taste.
Craig BothamChina+
- A shock return to positive territory for Tokyo CPI inflation...
- ...Partly driven by the BoJ's usual suspects, but with a larger contribution from goods prices.
- Supply chain issues are intensifying, and will likely be exacerbated by problems in China.
Craig BothamChina+
- China's energy rationing is already hurting domes- tic economic activity...
- ...But it may represent opportunities for exporters of energy intensive goods.
- Supply chain issues are intensifying, and will likely be exacerbated by problems in China.
Craig BothamChina+
- Industrial production growth likely slowed sharply in August, despite strong trade figures.
- FAI growth should soon rebound, but likely not in time for the August data.
- We owe M1 a partial apology; our forecast is now coming back into line with its signal.
Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+
- PPI inflation surprised to the upside in August, reflecting stubborn commodity pressures...
- ...The Ningbo-Zhoushan port closure likely was a factor, too, but disinflation is now on the horizon
- Pork price deflation continues to pull down CPI inflation, but underlying pressures are still building.
Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+
- Previous commodity price rises fed through in August;
- Services inflation is holding up against Delta
- Machine tool orders still positive at the margin
Peter BennettChina+
- The Delta wave was smaller than the last outbreak, yet it caused more damage to the services sector...
- ...Underscoring China's reluctance to ditch its Zero Covid stance; construction was the only bright spot.
- The manufacturing PMI slipped only modestly in August, but forward-looking indicators stayed grim.
Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+
