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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

ip Credit

18 Jan 2022 A Better Year for Consumption, but Now Normal Service Resumes

  • Growth was stronger than expected at the end of 2021, but still slowed...
  • The outsized contribution from both consumption and exports will now fade...
  • ...as the central government takes centre stage, supported from the wings by the PBoC.

Craig BothamChina+

14 Jan 2022 Credit Growth is Grease to the Wheels, not Fuel for the Fire

  • China's money and credit growth improved in December, but this isn't a stimulus surge.
  • The authorities are laying down the groundwork to bail out swathes of the economy.
  • We expect the Q4 GDP reading to be the weakest since the start of the pandemic.

Craig BothamChina+

China+ Datanote: Money Supply, China, December

In one line: Stronger money growth chiefly driven by fiscal efforts, as banks pull back

Craig BothamChina+

4 Jan 2022 Bright in Patches, but a Largely Dismal End to China's 2021

  • Despite some apparent good news, early data point to marginal weakening in growth in December.
  • Policymakers are delivering more initiatives, but they will only cushion the fall.
  • Bad news on Sinovac efficacy versus Omicron means reopening is pushed back a year, at least.

Craig BothamChina+

20 Dec 2021 The BoJ Takes Another Step Back, but Don't Call it Hawkish

  • The BoJ kept its main policy tools unchanged in December, but tinkered around the edges.
  • An announced reduction in corporate debt purchases had already begun in practice.
  • The taper is offset by an extension of SME lending, which has been a bigger balance sheet driver.

Craig BothamChina+

17 Dec 2021 Further Tentative Signs of Easing Bottlenecks in Japanese Exports

Japanese exports jumped in November, amidst signs of reduced supply chain pressures.

Unfortunately, the outlook for December is dimming, thanks in part to Chinese Covid policy.

Omicron is set to renew supply disruptions, just as they were easing, but it will also weaken demand.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Dec 2021 Infrastructure is Still En Route, but Other Headwinds are Forming

November's data are a mixed bag, but investment weakness, led by property, is the main concern.

Infrastructure should begin to offset property soon, but manufacturing faces its own challenges.

Omicron has entered China, and will intensify the cycle of zero-Covid lockdowns.

Craig BothamChina+

14 Dec 2021 Service Sector and SME Revivals are Boosting Japanese Growth

Japan's Tankan survey points to an improvement in Q4, particularly outside manufacturing.

Success in containing Covid, for now, has boosted the services sector, and smaller firms are reviving.

Inflationary pressures continued to build in Q4, but will not disturb BoJ policy yet.

Craig BothamChina+

13 Dec 2021 Slow and Steady in November as Policymakers Double Down

  • Early Chinese data point to a stabilisation—at low levels— of economic activity.
  • Infrastructure investment likely rose in November, partially offsetting the property slowdown.
  • Prepare for a harsher crackdown on the private sec- tor in 2022, and more infrastructure spending.

Craig BothamChina+

China+ Datanote: Money Supply, China, November

In one line: Some stabilisation, but we still think it’s an infrastructure story

Craig BothamChina+

7 Dec 2021 Under Duress, and Trying to Sound Upbeat, the PBoC Acts

  • Evergrande, and a nudge from upstairs, seem to have forced the PBoC's hand.
  • A 50 bps cut to the RRR frees up funds to deal with the clean-up operation, not supercharge growth.
  • More cuts will be needed, with growth likely to remain soft in Q1 of next year.

Craig BothamChina+

26 Nov 2021 An Expected Hike from the BoK, and Now a Long Pause

  • The Bank of Korea hiked as expected, taking the policy rate to 1.00%, from 0.75%.

    Further hikes were made conditional on a plethora of factors, providing plenty of wriggle room.

    We expect a pause until mid-2022, as Covid cases spike, and with an election looming in March.

Craig BothamChina+

23 Nov 2021 Bottlenecks and Chinese Policy to Ease, but Keep Calm

  • Korean trade data show further signs of an easing in congested supply chains.
  • Chinese policymakers turn more dovish, but no real relief for the property sector.
  • Renminbi strength starts to bother the PBoC, but "two-way volatility" is more likely than devaluation.

Craig BothamChina+

11 Nov 2021 Chinese Inflation Spikes, but Policymakers Won't Panic

  • Food and energy prices drove Chinese consumer price inflation sharply higher in October.
  • Partial energy liberalisation, coupled with soaring coal prices, led to record PPI inflation.
  • We think both spikes will be transitory, and will not necessitate a monetary policy response.

Craig BothamChina+

18 Oct 2021 China's Cost Shock Creates Problems Everywhere

  • Surging factory gate prices have just begun to re- flect recent energy shocks.
  • The Chinese consumer may be shielded from the energy hit, but China's economy will still suffer.
  • Global spillovers seem likely, with further cost in- creases to come as winter looms.

Craig BothamChina+

15 Oct 2021 The Evergrande Fiasco and Energy Prices Will Spoil the Recovery

  • A weak third quarter GDP print for China is a certainty, with the economy facing multiple headwinds.
  • Early data hint at the damage done, but September is just the start.
  • The real pain from the dual crises will be felt in Q4 and beyond.

Craig BothamChina+

China+ Datanote: Money Supply and Credit, China, September 2021

  • In one line: Deleveraging pressures continue as Evergrande’s shadow chills the economy

Craig BothamChina+

8 Oct 2021 No Capital Outflows Yet, but Contagion is Still Spreading

  • No cause for concern in foreign exchange reserves data.
  • Capital outflow pressure appears modest and re- serves sufficient, for now.
  • Property sector stress is growing, however, and cracks are appearing for key actors.

Craig BothamChina+

27 Sept 2021 A Property Sector Microcosm: The Economics of Evergrande

  • Evergrande stumbles on, but more interlinkages with other sectors are being uncovered.
  • China's property sector as a whole is really the Evergrande situation writ large.
  • The anticipated economic fallout will not be isolated to China, expect significant regional spillover

Craig BothamChina+

14 Sept 2021 Still Waiting for Reassurance from the Money and Credit Numbers

  • M1 is still waiting for a boost from local government bonds; issuance is going strong, at least.
  • M2 growth continued to slip in August, though it'll take more than this for the PBoC to flinch.
  • Households remained nervous last month, looking at the trivial uptick in borrowing activity.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

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