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Both M1 and M2 growth missed expectations in July, but the former arguably is due a turnaround.
Slowing household demand for credit isn't exactly concerning, as they are still sitting on piles of cash.
Japanese machine tool orders remain solid, indicating that the recovery in global IP is on track.
In one line: This will fuel calls for PBoC easing.
The PBoC followed through with a Reserve Requirement Ratio cut of 0.5 percentage points on Friday, hot on the heels of a strong hint to do so from the State Council meeting earlier in the week.
In one line: Don’t fret too much about slow M1 growth right now.
It's easy to fall into the trap of thinking that the Chinese monetary authorities are shifting to a broad-based easing stance.
China analysts have a not-so-secret weapon; credit and money trends are very good leading indicators
of GDP growth. At the moment, the signal from
those indicators is worrying.
China's activity data were disappointing for May, raising serious questions about a limbo period in the middle of the year.
The PBoC has had its foot off the brake for most of this year so far, following tightening through the second half of 2020, culminating in its efforts to shake out speculative activity through a spike in interbank markets in January.
The authorities are growing increasingly uncomfortable with the upward march of commodity prices.
China is at a critical point in the recovery. The economy is switching lanes from the supply-led, export-supported manufacturing surge to consumer and services drivers.
Normally, when M1 growth slows, and credit conditions tighten, that's it for the Chinese cycle. We think the peak of M1 growth, for now, was in January, and credit conditions appeared to tighten in the last few months.
In one line: Monetary and fiscal policy tightening has reined in monetary and credit conditions fast.
The BoJ press conference focused on inflation, which is a red herring, in terms of the drivers of policy changes over the next couple of years.
We recently downgraded our GDP forecasts for the latter part of this year, thanks to an M1 growth undershoot.
Our central short-term theme at the moment is that China's industrial complex carried on working at rates that are not normal for Lunar New Year, due to travel curbs.
China's sovereign debt and equity markets have stood out globally in the last few weeks, for very different reasons.
We've been waiting with bated breath to see how far China's M1 acceleration would go.
In one line: Adjusted new loans were stable; drop in M1 growth is serious.
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