Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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Credit

14 Sept 2021 Still Waiting for Reassurance from the Money and Credit Numbers

  • M1 is still waiting for a boost from local government bonds; issuance is going strong, at least.
  • M2 growth continued to slip in August, though it'll take more than this for the PBoC to flinch.
  • Households remained nervous last month, looking at the trivial uptick in borrowing activity.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

12 Aug 2021 PBoC Easing Remains Unlikely, Despite July's Soft Money Data

Both M1 and M2 growth missed expectations in July, but the former arguably is due a turnaround.

Slowing household demand for credit isn't exactly concerning, as they are still sitting on piles of cash.

Japanese machine tool orders remain solid, indicating that the recovery in global IP is on track.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

12 July 2021 The RRR Cut was About Managing Interbank Liquidity

The PBoC followed through with a Reserve Requirement Ratio cut of 0.5 percentage points on Friday, hot on the heels of a strong hint to do so from the State Council meeting earlier in the week.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Money and Credit, China, June 2021

In one line: Don’t fret too much about slow M1 growth right now.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

9 July 2021 An RRR Cut Addresses Immediate Problems, it's not a Broad Easing

It's easy to fall into the trap of thinking that the Chinese monetary authorities are shifting to a broad-based easing stance.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

5 July 2021 We Still Aren't too Worried About China's Credit/Money Slowdown

China analysts have a not-so-secret weapon; credit and money trends are very good leading indicators
of GDP growth. At the moment, the signal from
those indicators is worrying.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

17 June 2021 China Drops the Baton in the Switch From Manufacturing to Services

China's activity data were disappointing for May, raising serious questions about a limbo period in the middle of the year. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

11 June 2021 Monetary Conditions Finally Look to be Stabilising

The PBoC has had its foot off the brake for most of this year so far, following tightening through the second half of 2020, culminating in its efforts to shake out speculative activity through a spike in interbank markets in January. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

10 June 2021 The PBoC Can't Ignore Sky-High PPI Inflation

The authorities are growing increasingly uncomfortable with the upward march of commodity prices.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

7 June 2021 Having Your Cake and Eating it as the Household Savings Rate Falls

China is at a critical point in the recovery. The economy is switching lanes from the supply-led, export-supported manufacturing surge to consumer and services drivers.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

24 May 2021 China's Reopening Story Remains in Tact Despite Slow M1 Growth

Normally, when M1 growth slows, and credit conditions tighten, that's it for the Chinese cycle. We think the peak of M1 growth, for now, was in January, and credit conditions appeared to tighten in the last few months.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Money and Credit, April, China 2021

In one line: Monetary and fiscal policy tightening has reined in monetary and credit conditions fast.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

28 Apr 2021 Inflation is Beside the Point for the BoJ, Global Yields will Dictate Policy

The BoJ press conference focused on inflation, which is a red herring, in terms of the drivers of policy changes over the next couple of years.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

13 Apr 2021 Increased Household Saving Tendency Likely Continued in March

We recently downgraded our GDP forecasts for the latter part of this year, thanks to an M1 growth undershoot.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

30 Mar 2021 The PMIs will Bounce in March, but the Hard Data will Pull Back

Our central short-term theme at the moment is that China's industrial complex carried on working at rates that are not normal for Lunar New Year, due to travel curbs.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

15 Mar 2021 Equities, Sovereign Debt, PBoC Normalisation, and Battles with Ant

China's sovereign debt and equity markets have stood out globally in the last few weeks, for very different reasons.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

11 Mar 2021 Disappointing M1 numbers, but Still a 2021 GDP growth Uptrend

We've been waiting with bated breath to see how far China's M1 acceleration would go.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Money and credit, February, China 2021

In one line: Adjusted new loans were stable; drop in M1 growth is serious.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

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