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PPI inflation is proving stubborn, while CPI inflation is just getting started.
Services inflation continues to rise, despite the broadening Delta scare.
Trade figures highlight the "mid-cycle" falter, as exports soften but imports stumble too.
July exports likely weakened, while imports will be boosted by the tail end of commodities inflation.
PPI inflation may not yet have peaked; headline CPI inflation is just about food prices.
M1 growth should now be troughing, but an RRR cut is looking more likely nonetheless.
China's weak July PMIs play into a wider story of underperformance in trade and manufacturing.
The official and Caixin reports are at odds on prices, but we reckon PPI inflation ticked higher in July.
The non-manufacturing gauge suggests that no fis- cal rescue has been forthcoming.
China's PPI inflation is at or near its peak, and CPI inflation remains relatively tame...
... But underlying inflationary pressure is more ad- vanced in China, thanks to the early recovery.
More limited slack means services inflation is on a sustained uptrend.
Sometimes when you put together the Chinese data, it feels like you are drawing from multiple jigsaw puzzles, each with pieces missing.
Chinese exports surprised to the upside in June, with growth picking up to 32.2% year-over-year, from 27.9% in May.
The PBoC followed through with a Reserve Requirement Ratio cut of 0.5 percentage points on Friday, hot on the heels of a strong hint to do so from the State Council meeting earlier in the week.
Energy inflation is not straightforward to forecast in China, thanks to the lack of clarity over the CPI weights.
The official manufacturing PMI indicates that bottlenecks remain a problem.
The PBoC continues to hold off on tightening, as it waits for something closer to herd immunity, and to see how the economy responds to "freedom".
Last year President Xi announced a new target
for China, with the importance of GDP targeting diminishing.
The authorities are growing increasingly uncomfortable with the upward march of commodity prices.
It's now widely appreciated that Chinese exports are exposed, as the global economy switches lanes to services, from manufacturing.
China's official manufacturing PMI was little changed at 51.0 in May, after April’s 51.1, with the index remaining oblivious to U.S. stimulus efforts and in recent months.
Overall, data available so far for May point to a modest improvement in Chinese manufacturing.
M1 growth dropped further in April, to 6.2% year- over-year, from March's already-low 7.1%.
China's PPI inflation picked up to 6.8% in April, from March's 4.4%, and it isn't quite done yet.
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