Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Daily Monitor

1 July 2025 China+ Monitor PBoC signals less urgency for policy support as PMIs improve

  • The PBoC on Friday hinted it saw less need for a near- term monetary policy boost than three months ago.
  • The June official manufacturing PMI improved, thanks to policy support and an easing in tariff tensions.
  • The construction PMI ticked up at last, but it’s too soon to celebrate; the hard data pointed to slowing.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

25 June 2025 China+ Monitor Japan's flash PMIs reveal areas of resilience amid tariff storm

  • Japan’s June headline flash manufacturing index was lifted by output, but demand remained subdued.
  • Cost pressures are easing only slowly, with global oil prices a key risk.
  • The service sector continues to be bolstered by tourism, notably surging Chinese visitor numbers.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

24 June 2025 China+ Monitor Temporary export surge belies US-Korea trade frictions

  • Korea’s 20-day export growth rebounded, likely supported by stockpiling as the US’s deadline nears.
  • Shipments to the US, EU and Taiwan were the main drivers, while chip exports were strong in June.
  • The trade-talk logjam continues; we expect the grace period to be extended, allowing more negotiating time.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

19 June 2025 China+ Monitor Japanese auto exports bear the brunt of US tariff hikes

  • Japan’s exports fell in May for the first time since September, hit by US tariff hikes.
  • Still, exports held up better than the market expected, as exporters cut prices and shipments to the EU rose.
  • The bond market faces risks from July’s upper house election, despite the BoJ’s supportive policy tweak.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

18 June 2025 China+ Monitor BoJ pares back the reduction of its JGB purchases from next April

  • The BoJ left policy rates unchanged in June, while scaling back its tapering of bond-buying next year…
  • …Likely due to bond-market volatility, the stalemate in trade negotiations and tensions in the Middle East.
  • We expect the Bank to continue pausing its rate-hiking cycle in the near term as Japan’s economy weakens.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

17June 2025 China+ Monitor China's activity data reveal pockets of slack, despite policy support

  • China’s solid retail sales figure for May was boosted by earlier online retail sales and subsidy policies.
  • Manufacturing and infrastructure investment growth are slowing; expect the policy banks to step up soon.
  • Policymakers are likely to opt for a mid-year top-up and refinement of targeted support; no big stimulus.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

13 June 2025 China+ Monitor China's productivity opportunity can cushion demographic pressure

  • China faces a long-term demographic headwind, as its workforce declines and population ages...
  • ...but also an opportunity to shift 20% of the workforce into jobs with productivity three times higher.
  • Growth potential will still be substantial after the structural adjustment; plus AI is a wild card.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

12 June 2025 China+ Monitor China-US deal upheld after London talks, but still a long way to go

  • Handshakes in London iron out implementation of the US-China deal struck in Geneva, subject to approval.
  • The 90-day tariff reprieve revived China’s exports in May, temporarily, with trade diversion to the EU…
  • …Uncertainty-induced front-loading demand puts a floor under monthly growth ahead of reprieve expiry.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

10 June 2025 China+ Monitor China's inflation data still soft but with little tariff-war effect so far

  • China’s intensifying producer deflation in May reflects soft energy prices, rather than any direct tariff impact.
  • Lacklustre core consumer inflation is indicative of still- sluggish domestic demand.
  • Policymakers are likely to stick with targeted support, as they gradually implement demand-side reforms.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

6 June 2025 China+ Monitor BoJ likely to stick to its bond-buying plan for now

  • The BoJ will probably leave its bond-buying plan unchanged, after signs the market is functioning better.
  • Thursday’s 30-year bond auction went well, after reports the MOF is likely to slow ultra-long bond issuance.
  • The ruling coalition is likely to lose seats in the July Upper House election though, sparking debt worries.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

4 June 2025 China+ Monitor China's divergent PMI readings suggest targeted sector pain

  • China’s May manufacturing PMI readings diverged, as activity gradually revived post-May 12’s tariff truce.
  • Small exporters are likely being hit harder by the trade-policy oscillations, and the détente is already fraying.
  • Sentiment has held up surprisingly well, and improved slightly in both manufacturing gauges.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

3 June 2025 China+ Monitor Korea heads to the polls amid economic and trade uncertainty

  • Both candidates in the presidential election have committed to a KRW30T fiscal plan to boost the economy.
  • May’s export growth was not as weak as it appeared; WDA monthly and annual growth were positive.
  • Still, tariff and trade-policy uncertainty will continue to weigh on Korea’s GDP growth in 2025.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

30 May 2025 China+ Monitor BoK cuts rates and lowers GDP outlook amid external uncertainty

  • The Bank of Korea cut rates to 2.50% in May; board members’ decision was unanimous.
  • Weaker growth and lingering uncertainty over trade were likely the factors driving this month’s cut.
  • The stronger KRW gave the BoK a window to ease, and a July Fed cut would allow another 25bp cut this year.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

29 May 2025 China+ Monitor China's residential market enjoying only a modest boost

  • China’s residential sales have cooled gradually since the late-September round of policy support.
  • May’s cuts to lending rates should pep up sales, but it won’t be the last round of support.
  • Broad inventory likely still has two years to bottom out, though the recovery should begin earlier.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

28 May 2025 China+ Monitor China's industrial profit rebound, though uneven, has bright spots

  • China’s April industrial profits ticked up a notch, helped by the consumer goods and equipment policies.
  • But auto profits are still falling, despite rising sales, owing to fierce competition and excess supply.
  • The tariff-war impact is likely to be felt in the coming months, hitting the profits of export sectors.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

23 May 2025 China+ Monitor Japan's private-sector activity shrinks in May

  • Japan’s composite PMI dipped below 50 in May, led by rapidly slowing services and a drop in manufacturing.
  • That said, US importers rushed to order goods ahead of the tariff reprieve expiring, offsetting falls in output.
  • The BoJ will hold rates as it assesses the outcome of negotiations and their impact on the economy.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

22 May 2025 China+ Monitor Tariff war weighing on Korean and Japanese export growth

  • Korea saw improvements in early trade data for May, with exports falling at a slower pace.
  • Japan’s export growth in April was hit by US tariffs on foreign cars and steel products.
  • The BoK will resume easing to offset tariff impacts; the BoJ will pause rate hikes and assess negotiations.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

20 May 2025 China+ Monitor China's cooling due more to existing issues than tariff war, so far at least

  • China’s April retail sales, investment and industrial production point to flagging growth.
  • Policymakers saw this coming, hence the PBoC’s May 7 announcement of interest rate and RRR cuts.
  • The slowdown stems more from existing issues, with the direct impact of the tariff war still emerging.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

16 May2025 China+ Monitor Uptick in China's TSF growth masks weak underlying credit demand

  • China’s broad credit growth rose in April, driven primarily by faster issuance of government bonds.
  • The widening M2-M1 gap signifies persistent deflation pressure and subdued economic activity.
  • Uncertainty over the outcome of talks will weigh on the economy, despite the recent US-China trade truce.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

14 May 2025 China+ Monitor China mired in deflation amid falling oil prices and trade disruption

  • China continues to suffer from deflation, amid falling commodity prices and trade disruption.
  • Consumer core inflation remains subdued; producer prices for some export-related goods have fallen.
  • The US–China tariff reprieve is growth-positive, but the outcome of negotiations remains highly uncertain.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

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