Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Asia Publications

Below is a full list of our Asia Publications.

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13 July 2017 Japanese PPI Inflation to Decelerate, but Only Modestly

Japan's producer price inflation levelled off in June and, for now, both commodity prices and currency moves in the first half imply that inflation should fall in the second...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)12th Jul 2017 16:39Asia

12 July 2017 BoJ's Curve Targeting is More Stimulatory than Base Targeting

Japanese M2 growth increased trivially in June to 3.9% year-on-year from 3.8% in May, significantly higher than the 3.2% rate in August, before the BoJ began targeting the yield...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)10th Jul 2017 16:51Asia

10 July 2017 PBoC and BoJ Choose Divergent Paths in the Second Half

The two major central banks of Asia have chosen hugely divergent policies. The BoJ has chosen to fix interest rates, while the PBoC appears set on preventing a meaningful...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)9th Jul 2017 21:09Asia

7 July 2017 China's Authorities Losing the Regulatory Arbitrage Game

All regulators face the challenge that when you regulate one part of the economy, problems appear somewhere else. For China, the game is particularly intense because liquidity...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)6th Jul 2017 10:08Asia

6 July 2017 Chinese Service Sector Downtrend to Continue into the Second Half

China's service sector slowed again in June, with the Caixin PMI falling to 51.6 from 52.8 in May. The Q2 average of 52.0 was only minimally lower than the 52.6 in Q1.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)5th Jul 2017 09:59Asia

5 July 2017 BoJ to Jettison Quantity Target as Voters Express Discontent

Mr Abe's Liberal Democratic Party took a drubbing at the polls in Tokyo's Assembly election over the weekend. The consequences for fiscal spending probably are minimal but...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)4th Jul 2017 11:43Asia

4 July 2017 Mr Abe Trounced in Tokyo Elections just as Recovery Gains Traction

The Tankan survey powered ahead in Q2, pulling away from Q1 and mostly beating consensus. This confirms our impression of the strength of the recovery ,just as Prime Minister...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)3rd Jul 2017 11:12Asia

3 July 2017 China's Industrial Complex still Strong in Q2, H2 in Draghi's Hands

We expect China's quarterly real GDP growth in the second quarter to edge down from Q1, but only because Q1 growth was unsustainable. The official data shows real GDP growth...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)2nd Jul 2017 21:33Asia

30 June 2017 China's Government Still has Room to Clean up, but what if they Balk?

In the yesterday's Monitor, we presented an exagerated upper-bound for China's bad debt problem, at 61% of GDP. The limitations of the data meant that we double-counted a...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)29th Jun 2017 10:17Asia

29 June 2017 China's Debt is not too High, but it Grew too Fast - Reckoning will Come

China's total debt stock is high for a country at its stage of development, relative to GDP, but it is sustainable for country with excess savings. China was never going to be...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)28th Jun 2017 10:40Asia

28 June 2017 Chinese Profits Growth to Decelerate, That's a Good Thing

Chinese industrial profits growth rose to 16.7% year-on-year in May, from 14.0% in April. But this headline is highly misleading. Profits growth data are about as cyclical as they...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)27th Jun 2017 11:05Asia

27 June 2017 Japanese Inflation to Hold up as Food Prices Counterbalance Energy

Japanese services price inflation edged down in May as the twin upside drivers of commodity price inflation and yen weakness began to lose steam. We expect wage costs to begin...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)26th Jun 2017 11:43Asia

26 June 2017 Japan Surprises on the Upside as the Economy Accelerates into Q2

Japanese data continue to come in strongly for the second quarter. The manufacturing PMI points to continued sturdy growth, despite the headline index dipping to 52.0 in June from...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)23rd Jun 2017 10:57Asia

23 June 2017 PBoC is to the Chinese Yield Curve as Dr Frankenstein is to the Monster

China has undoubtedly been through a credit tightening, commonly explained as the PBoC attempting to engineer a squeeze, to spur on corporate deleveraging.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)22nd Jun 2017 12:10Asia

22 June 2017 Asian Exports Remain Sturdy in Q2, but the Outlook is Cloudy

Korea's preliminary export numbers rebounded quite spectacularly in June, with growth at 24.4% year-on-year, compared with just 3.4% in May. This reading is important as it...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)21st Jun 2017 11:35Asia

21 June 2017 Japan will Grow this Year, Despite its Structural Hurdles

Abenomics has had its successes in changing the structure of Japan. Notably, large numbers of women have gone back to work and corporations have started paying dividends. These...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)20th Jun 2017 14:41Asia

20 June 2017 China Property is Slowing, Prices now Depend on Mortgage Rates

House price inflation in tier-one cities has been crushed by China's most recent monetary tightening. This is a sharp turnaround from the overheating mid-way through last...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)19th Jun 2017 14:19Asia

19 June 2017 Forget About Tapering, it's Done. Next, the Quantity Target Will go

The BoJ left its policy levers unchanged at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Friday. At the press conference, Governor Kuroda was repeatedly asked about the status of the...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)19th Jun 2017 07:33Asia

16 June 2017 Chinese Growth to Slump Under the Burden of Deleveraging

Wednesday's money data confirmed that Chinese households have continued to borrow into Q2 but at a slower rate than in 2016. The slowdown will really set in during the second...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)15th Jun 2017 13:45Asia

15 June 2017 China's Q2 Growth to Remain Sturdy but Expect a Slower H2

China's industrial production grew at an annualised 7.2% rate by volume in Q1, according to our estimates, up from an average 5.9% rate in the six quar ters through mid-2016.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)14th Jun 2017 12:03Asia

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