China+ Datanote: Flash manufacturing PMI, Japan, March

Modest improvement in still-dull Japanese manufacturing activity reading

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 21 March 2024: Flash PMIs points to improved activity

Japan's robust services sector contrasts with drab manufacturing activity; Exports still strong, despite headline dip

Duncan WrigleyChina+

22 March 2024 China+ Monitor Japan's sunny service sector clouded by insipid manufacturing activity

• Japan’s March flash manufacturing PMI points to still-tepid activity, though improving modestly.
• The service sector continues to shine brightly, albeit based narrowly on tourism and finance.
• A jump in service-sector input costs is a worrying sign of persistently elevated inflation.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 18 March 2024: industry powers on, as retail sales slow

China activity - industrial sector powers ahead, despite persistent property drag and retail sales losing steam

Duncan WrigleyChina+

19 March 2024 China+ Monitor China's China's industrial sector strength contrasting with tepid consumption

• China’s lopsided recovery continued in January and February, led by a galloping industrial sector...
• ...Demand is likely mainly coming from exports and fixed asset investment, with consumption still tepid.
• Further price cuts should drive car sales, while new-property developer woes continue.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Money & Credit, China, February

Fiscal stimulus likely to drive credit demand after the holiday period

Duncan WrigleyChina+

18 March 2024 China+ Monitor China's credit data point to a dull economy; policy uplift yet to come

• China’s February credit data indicate still-flat borrowing demand, after filtering the holiday noise.
• Credit growth is likely to pick up as government-bond issuance rises to fund fiscal support.
• The equipment-upgrade and ‘cash-for-clunkers’ measures should also spur loan demand.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: China's action plan for equipment upgrading & consumer goods

China's action plan for equipment upgrading & consumer goods trade-ins to prop up demand

Duncan WrigleyChina+

14 March 2024 China+ Monitor BoJ likely to hold off normalising rates until April

• BoJ Governor Ueda gave mixed signals at his legislature appearance on Tuesday.
• Japan’s January household spending data were broadly weak, but the incoming wage data are key...
• ...The BoJ is likely to keep rates on hold next week, waiting for more data, leaving the rate hike until April.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

11 March 2024 China+ Monitor China's ramps up fiscal support, notably for industrial development

• The Two Sessions confirm China will mainly rely on fiscal policy to support growth this year.
• We estimate the impact of additional fiscal support at 1.5% of GDP, partly offsetting the property drag.
• Regions are rolling out “ future industry” plans, anticipating the next generation of high-tech sectors.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

6 March 2024 China+ Monitor China's PMIs suggest weak labour market undermines domestic demand

• The February services PMIs were both respectable, albeit still below long-term averages...
• ...But weak employment indices highlight the fragility of domestic demand.
• Premier Li yesterday indicated a steady course, with no big stimulus, and outlined targeted measures.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, China, February

In one line: China’s manufacturing sector treads water during Lunar New Year 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 1 March 2024

China’s manufacturing sector treads water during Lunar New Year 

Holiday spending buoys China’s services activity 

Japanese manufacturing still struggling 

Ignore the headline export slowdown; Korean working-day adjusted export growth is vigorous

Duncan WrigleyChina+

4 March 2024 China+ Monitor China's Lunar New Year holiday spending splurge won't last

• Holiday spending drove a modest uptick in the February services PMI, but this is set to fade again.
• The manufacturing PMIs moved sideways over February, waiting for a stimulus lift.
• Premier Li is likely to announce only targeted support for consumption and investment at tomorrow ’s NPC.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

1 March 2024 China+ Monitor Premier Li likely to announce only targeted support for consumption

• Premier Li is likely to announce targeted support for auto and home appliance consumption at the NPC...
• ...But this should be incremental demand support, rather than a big stimulus.
• China’s recovery will probably remain lacklustre but gradually gain traction in 2024.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

28 February 2024 China+ Monitor Japan's CPI falls less than expected due largely to data anomalies

• Japan’s national prices rise at the slowest rate since Q1 2021, thanks to softer food and energy prices.
• The surge in overseas package-holiday inflation has distorted the outturn away from the consensus.
• BoJ will be more confident to normalise rates but, given Fed’s delayed move, policy will tighten by June.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

26 February 2024 China+ Monitor BoK edging towards a rate cut; Q3 still most likely timing

• The BoK kept the policy rate unchanged yet again, but one board member is now open to a rate cut...
• ...But the Bank will probably hold off until Q3, worried about rising household debt and inflation.
• The modest improvement in China’s January residential prices likely doesn’t mark a turning point.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: BoK Policy Decision, Korea, February

• The BoK stays put, but changing voting pattern hints at future policy shift

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Flash manufacturing PMI, Japan, February

• Japanese manufacturing activity hit by fading demand and supply

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 22 February 2024: BoK on hold; Japanese flash PMIs

BoK on hold, but hinting at future easing; Japan's flash PMIs indicate continued sluggishness

Duncan WrigleyChina+