11 April 2024 China+ Monitor China's uneven recovery set to make only halting progress

• China’s GDP growth should increase slightly in Q1 quarter-to-quarter, but severe imbalances persist.
• A robust industrial sector contrasts with plunging new-property sales and flat consumption activity.
• Policy support for consumer goods trade-ins and equipment upgrades should be incrementally helpful.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Foreign Reserves, China, March

In one line:  China forex reserves rose more than expected in March, thanks to stronger trade surplus and bond inflows.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 8 April 2024: Japan's broad wage growth still lacklustre

Japan's broad wage growth still lacklustre

Duncan WrigleyChina+

8 April 2024 China+ Monitor BoK likely to sit tight until Q3, mindful of rising cost pressures

• The BoK will probably hold the policy rate steady on Friday, amid stubborn inflation and KRW pressure.
• The March manufacturing PMI points to sluggish domestic demand but rising cost pressures.
• Exports are riding a firming rebound, thanks to high-end- chip demand related to AI.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

5 April 2024 China+ Monitor Japan's Tankan survey points to still-tepid manufacturing activity

• Japan’s Tankan for large manufacturers deteriorated for the first time in a year.
• The silver lining is optimism for the non-manufacturing sector, storming to its highest since 1991.
• Nothing in the survey will surprise the BoJ, and we expect interest rates to reach 0.20% by end-2024.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 3 April 2024: PMIs point to services buoyancy in China & Japan

PMIs point to services sector buoyancy in China and Japan

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Tokyo CPI, Japan, March

In one line: Japan’s Tokyo inflation ticks up in March, thanks to a smaller fall in energy prices

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Official Manufacturing PMI, China, March

In one line: Manufacturing activity expands for the first time in 6 months 

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Caixin Manufacturing PMI, China, March

Chinese manufacturing demand improves after the Lunar New Year holiday 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Exports, Korea, March

Korean exports propelled by resurgent semiconductor shipments

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 2 April 2024: Post-holiday bump in Caixin and Korean PMIs

Post-holiday improvement in Caixin, Korean PMIs; Japanese Tankan fades; Korean exports sustain recovery trend

Duncan WrigleyChina+

3 April 2024 China+ Monitor Hopeful signs of a gradually broadening recovery in China

• China’s March official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs were both above 50 for the first time since September.
• A strong industrial sector is generating demand for business services too.
• But the lacklustre labour market and dismal property sector will limit the speed of China’s recovery.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

2 April 2024 China+ Monitor China's residential property market still festering; no big policy shift yet

• Chinese officials are downplaying the risks linked to the continued struggles of the property sector.
• But the new-housing market showed little sign of reviving in the first two months of 2024.
• Piecemeal policy support is unlikely to bring about a near-term recovery in new-home sales.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 27 March 2024

China’s industrial profits bounce in February, owing to base effects

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: LPR, China, March

In one line: China lending rates unchanged in March as per market consensus

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

28 March 2024 China+ Monitor China's industrial profits surge on base effects; awaiting spending boost

• China’s industrial profits soared, on the low base last year when the country emerged from zero-Covid.
• Capital equipment and consumption goods manufacturing make up most of the profit improvement.
• We expect a firmer recovery after the implementation of the action plans to upgrade consumption.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

March 2024 - China+ Chartbook

CHINA+ OUTLOOK

- CHINA’S TWO SESSIONS OFFER ONLY TARGETED STIMULUS
- BOJ EXITS FROM NEGATIVE RATES; NO NEAR-TERM MOVES
- DEMAND FOR HIGH-END CHIPS LIFTS KOREAN EXPORTS

Duncan WrigleyChina+

27 March 2024 China+ Monitor FDI into China has weathered the storm, but the waters are still choppy

• China’s foreign direct investment seems to have passed its lowest point, hit in late 2023.
• Top policymakers are rolling out the red carpet to tempt foreign CEOs back to China, as it recovers.
• But geopolitical tensions will limit the foreign investment rebound, especially in high-tech sectors.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

25 March 2024 China+ Monitor Japan's wage-price spiral still in its infancy; BoJ admits it moved early

• Japan’s much-heralded wage-price spiral is likely a way off, despite the end of the negative rate policy.
• Household spending dived in January, while consumer inflation is on a cooling trend.
• A PBoC deputy governor on Thursday was relaxed about slowing credit and broad money growth.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Flash manufacturing PMI, Japan, March

Modest improvement in still-dull Japanese manufacturing activity reading

Duncan WrigleyChina+