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We've expressed misgivings for some time about the sustainability of GDP quarterly growth into Q2.
The PBoC followed through with a Reserve Requirement Ratio cut of 0.5 percentage points on Friday, hot on the heels of a strong hint to do so from the State Council meeting earlier in the week.
Energy inflation is not straightforward to forecast in China, thanks to the lack of clarity over the CPI weights.
China's on-balance sheet government deficit has recovered fast since the initial Covid hit early last year, reaching a seasonally adjusted 3.9% of GDP in Q1, on our calculations, up from the trough of 8.2% in Q1 last year, leaving it easily above the 5.3% average through 2019.
The official manufacturing PMI indicates that bottlenecks remain a problem.
The potential for a consumption-led rebound in Chinese GDP growth is being underestimated, and we still expect a pop of faster growth.
China's official manufacturing PMI looks exposed in the context of the recent softening of regional trade flows. Korean 20-day export growth for June slowed to 29.4% year-over-year, from 53.0% in May.
The PBoC continues to hold off on tightening, as it waits for something closer to herd immunity, and to see how the economy responds to "freedom".
The Bank made a surprise announcement at its meeting last week.
The BoJ meeting this week could be live, with an extension of the Special Funds Supplying operation, likely to March next year, from September currently.
Last year President Xi announced a new target
for China, with the importance of GDP targeting diminishing.
The PBoC has had its foot off the brake for most of this year so far, following tightening through the second half of 2020, culminating in its efforts to shake out speculative activity through a spike in interbank markets in January.
The authorities are growing increasingly uncomfortable with the upward march of commodity prices.
PPI inflation will edge higher and stay lofty through H2.
Swine flu ironically is holding back CPI inflation.
Machine tool orders could suggest stockpiling.
It's now widely appreciated that Chinese exports are exposed, as the global economy switches lanes to services, from manufacturing.
Chinese exports have recovered much more quickly than elsewhere, thanks in large part to the still strong command element of the economy.
China's PMIs strongly suggest that supply-side bottlenecks, if anything, are worsening.
China's official manufacturing PMI was little changed at 51.0 in May, after April’s 51.1, with the index remaining oblivious to U.S. stimulus efforts and in recent months.
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