China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Weekly Monitor
- The steep decline in China’s new residential sales eased only a tiny bit in March.
- Developer funding is still under severe pressure; the 6,000-project whitelist offers limited help, so far.
- China’s residential sector faces a grinding recovery, despite flickers of life in Shanghai’s luxury market.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s marked fall in exports in March highlights the need to boost domestic demand.
- After factoring out base effects and seasonality, exports are probably enjoying a modest rebound.
- The equipment & consumer goods trade -in schemes should be significant, despite slow policymaking.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoK will probably hold the policy rate steady on Friday, amid stubborn inflation and KRW pressure.
- The March manufacturing PMI points to sluggish domestic demand but rising cost pressures.
- Exports are riding a firming rebound, thanks to high-end- chip demand related to AI.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Chinese officials are downplaying the risks linked to the continued struggles of the property sector.
- But the new-housing market showed little sign of reviving in the first two months of 2024.
- Piecemeal policy support is unlikely to bring about a near-term recovery in new-home sales.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Japan’s much-heralded wage-price spiral is likely a way off, despite the end of the negative rate policy.
- Household spending dived in January, while consumer inflation is on a cooling trend.
- A PBoC deputy governor on Thursday was relaxed about slowing credit and broad money growth.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s February credit data indicate still-flat borrowing demand, after filtering the holiday noise.
- Credit growth is likely to pick up as government-bond issuance rises to fund fiscal support.
- The equipment-upgrade and ‘cash-for-clunkers’ measures should also spur loan demand.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The Two Sessions confirm China will mainly rely on fiscal policy to support growth this year.
- We estimate the impact of additional fiscal support at 1.5% of GDP, partly offsetting the property drag.
- Regions are rolling out “ future industry” plans, anticipating the next generation of high-tech sectors.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Holiday spending drove a modest uptick in the February services PMI, but this is set to fade again.
- The manufacturing PMIs moved sideways over February, waiting for a stimulus lift.
- Premier Li is likely to announce only targeted support for consumption and investment at tomorrow ’s NPC.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoK kept the policy rate unchanged yet again, but one board member is now open to a rate cut...
- ...But the Bank will probably hold off until Q3, worried about rising household debt and inflation.
- The modest improvement in China’s January residential prices likely doesn’t mark a turning point.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC left the MLF rate on hold yesterday but is likely to cut it in Q2, as part of targeted support .
- Fiscal stimulus funds are likely to boost business cash flow in selected parts of the economy in H1.
- Urban real estate financing mechanisms promise to bring real money for project completions.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The downward trend in China’s producer prices showed little sign of bottoming out in January.
- Consumer prices rose for a second straight month in January, but holiday-period data are noisy.
- A policy recalibration, rather than a major shift, to tackle weak demand is likely at the Two Sessions.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Korean export grow th remains resilient on a WDA basis, driven by surging microchip exports.
- Shipments to the US are still seeing strong growth, while Chinese demand is recovering.
- The recovery in Korean exports is expected to continue and hinges on the semiconductor upturn.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Tokyo CPI declined sharply to a 22-month low in January, driven by softer food and services inflation.
- Core inflation excluding fresh food and energy fell to an elevated 3.1%; signs of sustainable price growth.
- The BoJ is likely to end negative interest rates in April, even if the fundamentals are not ready.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japanese consumer inflation continued to cool in December, led by falling food and energy inflation.
- Core inflation excluding fresh food fell to 2.3% year-over-year, just above the BoJ’s 2% target.
- The BoJ is likely to end negative interest rates in Q2, though an argument for delaying this is building.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s M2 growth fell in December, amid soft mortgage loan demand.
- Government-bond issuance is supporting social financing growth, despite slowing loan growth.
- The PBoC announced an additional RMB500B PSL quota, to fund projects like urban redevelopment.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s services sector is expanding at a faster pace; the PMI reports more domestic customers.
- The downturn in manufacturing intensified on demand uncertainty, both at home and abroad.
- The BoJ is likely to exit its negative rate policy in Q2, even if the economic backdrop does not warrant it.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Developer funding improved in November, thanks to regulatory support to ensure project completions.
- Home sales continue to fall steeply, but construction activity appears to be bottoming out at a low level.
- A sharp fall in existing-home prices likely indicates a supply surge as investors offload properties.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- November data show China’s consumption demand stagnating as winter closes in.
- The headline jump in industrial output is misleading, driven by utilities and base effects.
- A sharp fall in existing-home prices likely indicates a supply surge as investors offload proper ties.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s Q3 GDP growth was revise d down, largely due to a lower estimate for private consumption.
- Service exports surprisingly fell over the quarter, suggesting foreign tourism spending has peaked.
- Wage growth improved in October, partly thanks to bonuses; the BoJ is tracking the spring wage talks.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoK left the policy rate unchanged last week; it raise d its 2024 inflation forecast.
- The Bank is likely to shift its focus to growth support in 2024 but delay the first rate cut until Q3.
- Korean export growth rose in November, largely thanks to base effects; trade is still bottoming out.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
