China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Datanotes
In one line: LPRs unchanged, with China relying on fiscal policy to support growth
- Booming Korean exports in the first 20 days of February are mainly a semiconductor story…
- …Chip exports skyrocketed almost 180% thanks to rising prices and volumes.
- The BoK is likely to hold rates on Friday, despite soft activity outside the tech sector.
In one line: Cooling consumer inflation justifies BoJ taking time on rate hike
- China’s growth will slow as it matures, with speed giving way to stability and structural adjustment.
- Property remains a drag, with sustained producer and consumer reflation unlikely until the market troughs.
- The PBoC is promoting a stronger RMB, while the temporary US trade truce masks a power rivalry.
- Fresh thinking on China’s property market is emerging, but with no new policy ideas just yet.
- The new view stresses property as household wealth and thus linked to consumption demand.
- The back-and-forth in state support for Vanke hints at tensions as to how to tackle the developer debt crisis.
In one line: Hints of shifting property market policy, as prices extend their decline
- China’s consumer inflation fell sharply due to holiday effects, but monthly momentum has strengthened.
- Producer deflation eased unevenly, driven mostly by non-ferrous metals and ‘experience’-related industries.
- The reflation process still has a long way to go and is likely to be choppy, especially for the PPI.
- Japan’s snap election on Sunday produced a historic two-thirds majority for PM Takaichi’s LDP.
- She is in a strong position to press ahead with the food consumption tax cut, but funding details are awaited.
- On Thursday she called for a stable cut in the debt-to GDP ratio; she’ll likely avoid a Liz Truss moment.
In one line: Japan's regular pay growth steady, as PM Takaichi secures resounding election win
- China has issued key commentary on its financial future, with RMB reserve-currency status in focus.
- Its ambition goes beyond reserve currency, though, to becoming a major financial power too.
- Structural constraints and other deficiencies limit RMB reserve status, despite its progress in global usage.
In one line: China's RatingDog services PMI posts a modest gain, largely reflecting pre-holiday seasonality
- China’s manufacturing PMIs for January diverged, pointing to robust high-tech versus weak low-tech.
- Soft data for output prices improved, but this likely reflects a narrow set of prices, like non-ferrous metals.
- Construction-sector sentiment slumped to its lowest since the outbreak of Covid, despite policy support.
In one line: China's manufacturing PMIs indicate sharp divergence between old and new industries; Korean PMI lifted by AI-related chip sector
In one line: China industrial profits 2025: first positive turn in four years, but the path forward remains challenging
In one line: BoJ stands pats in January, but inflation momentum keeps tightening chances intact.
In one line: Japan’s PMIs jump in January, pointing to firmer labour demand, especially in manufacturing.
In one line: Japan CPI slump driven by energy and fresh food; underlying inflation remains sticky
In one line: Korea’s 20-day exports rebound buoyed by base effects; monthly momentum actually slowed in January.
In one line: Sharp drop in Tokyo inflation largely due to one-off factors; won't change BoJ outlook
- US allies’ visits to China signal geopolitical hedging, but don’t expect genuine economic integration.
- Beijing appears to be organising these visits to isolate Washington, judging by who initiated the invitations.
- Middle powers are hedging against US unpredictability, but economic fragmentation will lead to higher inflation.
