China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)
- China’s quarterly GDP grew a touch faster in Q3, but the headline masks weakness in domestic demand.
- The divergence holds between stronger exports and production, and weaker retail sales and investment.
- China’s Q4 growth hinges on successfully reining in deflation and unclogging local financing bottlenecks.
- China’s next Five-Year Plan will focus on long-term strategies in high-tech, energy, and national security…
- …As well as adherence to dual circulation, and maybe an industrial plan to succeed ‘Made in China 2025’.
- China’s consumers and producers are still mired in deflation despite recent improvements.
- The re-escalation of trade frictions highlights the lack
of trust between the US and China; more talks needed.
- September’s export rebound was partly due to base
effects, which mask weaker monthly momentum.
- The volatile nature of US-China trade relations still
poses a downside risk to China’s near-term growth.
In one line: China’s FX reserves edge higher, supported by portfolio inflows and persistently strong trade surplus.
In one line: Korea’s headline export surge masks WDA slump; Strong chip demand still underpins outlook.
In one line: Fimer Tankan readings pave way for BoJ policy normalisation in October.
In one line: Korean manufacturing activity surged in September on stronger orders and output.
- Ms. Takaichi’s win in Japan’s LDP leadership election reduces the likelihood of a BoJ hike in October.
- China’s FX reserves rose in September, fuelled by non-valuation effects, such as capital inflows.
- We think USD strength and the Fed’s rate path will be the key drivers of China’s FX reserves into early 2026.
In one line: China’s industrial profit rebound lacks breadth, with only seven industries show accelerating positive gains.
- Korea’s working-day-adjusted export value growth fell sharply in September, partly due to base effects.
- Manufacturing activity grew the most in 13 months, but the US ‘chip content’ tariff renews uncertainty.
- We expect the BoK to cut rates by 25bp in Q4, once financial stability risk from the housing market lessens.
- - CHINA LIKELY TO LAUNCH INVESTMENT STIMULUS SOON
- - BOJ SHOULD STILL HIKE, DESPITE POLITICAL RUCTIONS
- - KOREA’S EXPORTS TUMBLE IN SEPTEMBER
In one line: China’s commercial banks keep LPR steady in September; PBoC wary of a buoyant equity market
In one line: Korea’s September WDA exports plunge, led by US and China.
In one line: BoJ stays put on rates in September, starts ETFs and J-REITs offloading plan
- Presidents Xi and Trump’s phone call last Friday to talk about trade paved the way for a summit in October.
- Korean 20-day WDA exports fell sharply in September, thanks to weaker demand across most destinations.
- Most Korean goods are still subject to higher tariffs than pre-Trump. We expect the BoK to cut in Q4.
- Hong Kong Policy Address proposes to strengthen technology ties with the mainland and boost growth.
- Japan’s annual export growth fell for the fourth straight month, but monthly momentum improves.
- BoJ will keep rates on hold this week, but we expect it to resume its rate hike cycle in late October.
In one line: Valuation effects lift China’s FX reserves in August; expect them to drive reserves higher in H2
In one line: China exports slow on low-tech weakness; US, Africa and LatAM slump offsets ASEAN strength
In one line: Japan's real wage turned positive for the first time in seven months, paving the way for an October BoJ hike.
In one line: Japan’s private sector activity posts its fastest rise since February, with broad based services and manufacturing improvements.
