24 June 2025 China+ Monitor Temporary export surge belies US-Korea trade frictions

• Korea’s 20-day export growth rebounded, likely supported by stockpiling as the US’s deadline nears.
• Shipments to the US, EU and Taiwan were the main drivers, while chip exports were strong in June.
• The trade-talk logjam continues; we expect the grace period to be extended, allowing more negotiating time.

China+ Datanote: Loan Prime Rates, China, June

In one line: China's commercial banks hold benchmark lending rates steady in June

China+ Datanote: BoJ Decision, Japan, June

In one line: BoJ slowed tapering pace for next fiscal year but stood pat on policy rates in June

18 June 2025 China+ Monitor BoJ pares back the reduction of its JGB purchases from next April

• The BoJ left policy rates unchanged in June, while scaling back its tapering of bond-buying next year…
• …Likely due to bond-market volatility, the stalemate in trade negotiations and tensions in the Middle East.
• We expect the Bank to continue pausing its rate-hiking cycle in the near term as Japan’s economy weakens.

12 June 2025 China+ Monitor China-US deal upheld after London talks, but still a long way to go

• Handshakes in London iron out implementation of the US-China deal struck in Geneva, subject to approval.
• The 90-day tariff reprieve revived China’s exports in May, temporarily, with trade diversion to the EU…
• …Uncertainty-induced front-loading demand puts a floor under monthly growth ahead of reprieve expiry.

China+ Datanote: Flash Services PMI, Japan, May

In one line: Japan's services sector expands at a slower pace in May

China+ Datanote: Flash Manufacturing PMI, Japan, May

In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI rose as US importers rushed orders ahead of Tariff reprieve expiry.

China+ Datanote: Exports, China, May

In one line: China's monthly exports rebounded in May, thanks to tariff reprieve.

China+ Datanote: Foreign Reserves, China, May

In one line: China’s FX reserves rise modestly as bond revaluation offsets inflows

China+ Datanote: Caixin Services PMI, China, May

In one line : China's services activity ticks up, but deflationary pressure still lurking in the background.

China+ Datanote: Wages, Japan, April

In one line : Japanese inflation continues to outpace labour earnings; BoJ likely to hold rates in June.

China+ Datanote: Official Non-Manufacturing PMI, China, May

In one line: Golden Week boosts May's services activity in China, but overall non-manufacturing weighed down by weak resi-construction

China+ Datanote: Official Manufacturing PMI, China, May

In one line: China's manufacturing activity shrinks at a slower pace in May due to US tariff reprieve

China+ Datanote: Tokyo CPI, Japan, May

In one line: BoK cuts to 2.50% on weaker growth outlook amid tariff war impact

China+ Datanote: Bank of Korea Decision, Korea, May

In one line: BoK cuts to 2.50% on weaker growth outlook amid tariff war impact

China+ Datanote: Industrial Profits, China, April

In one line: China’s April profit growth masks uneven recovery beneath; Trade uncertainty clouds outlook 

China+ Datanote: Exports, Korea, May

In one line: Korea's exports set back less severe than expected, as tariff reprieve offers breathing space

3 June 2025 China+ Monitor Korea heads to the polls amid economic and trade uncertainty

• Both candidates in the presidential election have committed to a KRW30T fiscal plan to boost the economy.
• May’s export growth was not as weak as it appeared; WDA monthly and annual growth were positive.
• Still, tariff and trade-policy uncertainty will continue to weigh on Korea’s GDP growth in 2025.

30 May 2025 China+ Monitor BoK cuts rates and lowers GDP outlook amid external uncertainty

• The Bank of Korea cut rates to 2.50% in May; board members’ decision was unanimous.
• Weaker growth and lingering uncertainty over trade were likely the factors driving this month’s cut.
• The stronger KRW gave the BoK a window to ease, and a July Fed cut would allow another 25bp cut this year.

23 May 2025 China+ Monitor Japan's private-sector activity shrinks in May

• Japan’s composite PMI dipped below 50 in May, led by rapidly slowing services and a drop in manufacturing.
• That said, US importers rushed to order goods ahead of the tariff reprieve expiring, offsetting falls in output.
• The BoJ will hold rates as it assesses the outcome of negotiations and their impact on the economy.