China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Duncan Wrigley
In one line: BoJ won't be swayed by Tokyo inflation dip
In one line: BoK stays put today but new Governor Shin signals rate hikes on the way
- Chinese youth unemployment is hovering near historic highs, with AI only the latest factor weighing on hiring.
- We estimate the 10pp rise in youth unemployment since 2018 has knocked around 0.5pp off GDP growth.
- Still, China’s pursuit of AI as a critical growth engine aligns with public excitement and trust in AI.
In one line: Japan's slowing inflation probably won't dissuade the BoJ from hiking rates next month
- Japan’s finance minister said the government would aim to limit new bond issuance for the extra budget.
- The BoJ will likely look past slowing inflation in April, given the prospect of rising imported energy costs.
- Renewed currency weakness is likely to be the final straw, pushing the BoJ to a rate hike in June.
In one line: Policy rate cut only likely after several months of flagging growth
- China’s tier-one cities are enjoying a ‘mini boom’, raising hopes that the end of the property downturn is in sight.
- But national housing inventories still have almost a year to go before they reach a sustainable level.
- Cities are finding new ways to unlock genuine demand, though developer funding is still under pressure.
- China’s April data point to slowing activity, only partly explained by the global energy shock.
- Retail sales growth at 0.2% was the worst since December 2022, highlighting poor domestic demand.
- Investment is weak, though probably better than April’s figure—the worst since February 2020—suggests.
In one line: April's weak economic data due to energy shock and severe weather
- President Trump’s visit to Beijing last week marked a gradual improvement in bilateral relations...
- ...Which is likely to continue while Mr. Trump is in dealmaking mode to salvage his low popularity.
- The two countries’ different approaches to the AI transition should diffuse one key source of strain.
In one line: rise in fiscal deposits likely points to temporary building activity disruptions due to severe weather.
In one line: People curbed spending in response to fuel price hikes in March
- China’s consumer inflation rose 0.2pp to 1.2% in April, on the back of fuel-price rises.
- The government will continue to soften the impact of high international energy prices on end-users.
- Industry is likely to bear the brunt of higher energy costs, amid still-sluggish domestic demand..
- China’s manufacturing PMIs held up well in April, despite the disruption from the war in the Middle East.
- This resilience should continue in the near term, though exports are likely to slow as global demand fades.
- The weak construction PMI likely reflects bad weather; the infrastructure investment rebound should continue.
In one line: Tokyo inflation subdued thanks to expanded childcare subsidies;
Korean exports buoyed by robust chip sales
In one line: China's manufacturing sector holds up well in April; Services slows after the holiday boost; Construction PMI drop is puzzling
- China’s manufacturing PMIs held up well in April, despite the disruption from the war in the Middle East.
- This resilience should continue in the near term, though exports are likely to slow as global demand fades.
- The weak construction PMI likely reflects bad weather; the infrastructure investment rebound should continue.
In one line: BoJ on hold, but Governor Ueda's lack of clear policy signalling leaves JPY exposed
- The BoJ held the policy rate steady at 0.75% yesterday, amid uncertainty in the Middle East.
- Governor Ueda’s mixed message on policy direction could invite speculation on USDJPY.
- We think a June rate hike is still on the table, as long as prospects for a lasting ceasefire have improved by then.
- China is expediting fiscal measures to support investment by the end of H1...
- ...Providing flexibility for additional support in H2 if the Iran war drags on and hurts global growth.
- The residential property market is enjoying a ‘little spring’ with rising sale s, but a real recovery is still far off.
