China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Duncan Wrigley
- The February services PMIs were both respectable, albeit still below long-term averages...
- ...But weak employment indices highlight the fragility of domestic demand.
- Premier Li yesterday indicated a steady course, with no big stimulus, and outlined targeted measures.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Premier Li is likely to announce targeted support for auto and home appliance consumption at the NPC...
- ...But this should be incremental demand support, rather than a big stimulus.
- China’s recovery will probably remain lacklustre but gradually gain traction in 2024.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s national prices rise at the slowest rate since Q1 2021, thanks to softer food and energy prices.
- The surge in overseas package-holiday inflation has distorted the outturn away from the consensus.
- BoJ will be more confident to normalise rates but, given Fed’s delayed move, policy will tighten by June.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The two Japanese flash PMIs point to a flagging recovery, despite long-term optimism.
- A drop in service sector new export orders is a warning sign for the tourism sector.
- January national CPI, due Monday, will likely be sub- 2%, adding to the case for the BoJ to delay a rate rise.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC announced no change to the one-year LPR yesterday, in line with market expectations...
- ...But the surprisingly large 25bp cut to the five-year LPR is a clear signal of property-market support.
- China is finally taking bigger steps to boost the ailing property market, but more will likely be needed.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s social financing growth slowed a notch in January, due to less government-bond issuance.
- The jump in January net long-term new household loans is probably a blip; new-home sales are weak.
- The increase in M1 growth is a likely sign of stimulus funds improving business cash flow.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japanese nominal wage growth rose slightly in December but remains well below earlier highs..
- The continued decline in real wages, albeit easing, is dragging down real household spending.
- Disappointing tourism wages raise questions about the hoped-for transition to demand-push inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s January Caixin manufacturing PMI is still outperforming the official index.
- Rising investment goods output probably anticipates stimulus effects after the Lunar New Year holiday.
- The Caixin services PMI should see a holiday bump, despite consumer caution over costly purchases.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s January official manufacturing PMI points to an encouraging restocking cycle...
- ...Rising output and inventory readings suggest firms expect stimulus to boost domestic demand.
- Targeted funds for property support are arriving, but the recovery will still be protracted.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC yesterday announced an RRR cut; we see this as mainly to facilitate government-bond issuance.
- Governor Pan said RRR adjustments would drive down the LPR; a Q1 cut still seems likely.
- The big picture: China is relying on fiscal support to prop up growth, 2024 is likely to see token rate cuts.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ maintained its easy policy settings yesterday, while raising hopes for a change...
- ...Governor Ueda sees more chance of attaining the price target, given events in the spring wage talks.
- Q2 seems the most likely timing for negative rates to end, even if unwarranted by fundamentals.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Korean 20-day exports fell in January, defying our expectation for a continued rise.
- But this is likely a blip; exports to the US slowed sharply, despite still-strong consumption there.
- A surge in AI-related chip demand is likely to drive a gradual recovery in Korean exports this year.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s developer financing fell further in December, despite a new round of regulatory support.
- Residential property-price declines also worsened, as investors offloaded excess properties.
- More homebuyer support will likely be needed to drive a property-sector recovery.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s real GDP growth slowed in Q4, hit by property-sector woes and soft consumption.
- Targeted stimulus is giving a modest lift to manufacturing and fixed asset investment.
- Industrial output is holding up relatively well, with carmakers bullish about prospects for this year.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC left the MLF rate unchanged yesterday, as policymakers assess the impact of recent easing.
- Headline consumer inflation improved slightly in December, but core inflation remains sluggish.
- Excess capacity is likely to weigh on manufactured goods prices in 2024.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoK left the policy rate unchanged yesterday, while hinting at future easing in its statement...
- ...But Governor Rhee played down the likelihood of near-term rate cuts, worried about household debt.
- The BoK is likely to start easing in Q3; but a sharp KRW appreciation could bring forward that shift.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Tokyo consumer headline inflation continued to fall in December, as food inflation cooled.
- Core inflation is slowing, as high import costs pass through the system gradually.
- The BoJ will probably still exit its negative rate policy in Q2, despite slowing inflation and mediocre growth.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s foreign reserves posted a second straight strong rise in December, as U.S. yields fell.
- Both valuation effects and improved capital inflows drove the marked increase in reserves.
- China’s pro-growth policy tilt is seen in the firing of an official, after new gaming rules hit stock prices.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The Caixin PMI indicated rising service activity in December, in contrast to the depressed official PMI...
- ...But the Caixin PMI has been a better leading indicator of services production recently.
- Consumer services demand is likely to continue to outperform soft consumer goods demand in 2024.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ announced no change to its easy policy settings yesterday.
- Falling U.S. yields have eased pressure on the yen, lessening the urgency of a BoJ policy shift.
- The December flash PMIs indicate falling manufacturing demand, but resilient services activity.
Duncan WrigleyChina+