China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: Buoyant Caixin services PMI points to pockets of strength, such as tourism
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Caixin PMI reports falling export orders
Korean exports hold up thanks to front-loading, but domestic demand sags
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s July manufacturing PMIs were buffeted by headwinds from trade risk and bad weather.
- But sentiment improved slightly, showing business confidence in new products and markets.
- The dipping construction PMI partly reflects a downshift in local-government fiscal stimulus.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- - CHINA’S PRICE WARS WILL PROMPT POLICY RESPONSE
- - BOJ STRIKES CAUTIOUS TONE ON GROWTH OUTLOOK
- - BOK LIKELY TO EASE, DESPITE CURRENCY WORRY
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The BoJ yesterday kept the policy rate on hold at 0.5%, as widely expected.
- The Bank remains cautious about the growth outlook, despite the US-Japan trade deal.
- The BoJ did raise its inflation forecast though, because of food inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- H1 went quite well, all things considered, but China still wants to project a strong image to the world.
- China’s new residential sales weakened further in the first four weeks of July.
- The new child-rearing subsidies are a step in the right direction, but small by international standards.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Involution (内å·), or excessive competition, has been a buzzword in China in recent years.
- Industrial profits are being squeezed by oversupply, weak demand and excessive competition.
- Policymakers started an anti-involution campaign in earnest in July, hoping to restore industrial orders.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Tokyo headline inflation slows, despite rising food inflation
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Tokyo headline inflation declined in July, due to energy subsidies for households.
- But the BoJ will focus on the upward creep in food inflation, despite rice inflation slowing in some data.
- The Bank is likely to take a somewhat rosier view of growth prospects at this Thursday’s meeting.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's weak manufacturing PMI should rise after US-Japan trade deal
Services activity rose
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Deputy Governor Uchida said on Wednesday that the US-Japan tariff deal reduces uncertainty...
- ...hinting that the BoJ will revise up its growth and inflation outlook next week.
- The July composite flash PMI was steady, though services and manufacturing activity diverged.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- We are raising our growth and inflation forecasts for Japan, after yesterday’s relatively benign trade deal.
- The BoJ is likely to resume rate hikes in October, as it forms an initial view on the 2026 wage outlook.
- USDJPY is likely to strengthen moderately; but political risk was evident in the 40-year JGB auction yesterday.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s Upper House election is done and dusted; the coalition has now lost its majority in both houses.
- July’s 20-day exports held up on a WDA basis, despite the higher tariffs applied to Korean exports to the US.
- A preliminary US-Korea trade deal may be reached before August 1, but anything agreed will be general.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Japan's headline consumer inflation slows after energy subsidies restart
upper house election poses JGB risks
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Headline consumer inflation eased in June, as energy subsidies took effect.
- Rice prices are star ting to fall week-to-week, but broader food inflation is picking up.
- The bond market will probably be jittery after the Upper House election yesterday.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japanese export growth was surprisingly weak, because of a drop in shipments to Taiwan and Canada.
- Japan’s economy has probably entered a technical recession in Q2, likely dragged down by net trade.
- The LDP coalition is at risk of losing its Upper House majority; this will be bond-and yen-negative.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Better external sector performance likely to support Q2 GDP due tomorrow.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: BoK hold rates in July, keeping an eye on trade developments and overheating property market in Seoul.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s FX reserves rebounded in June on currency and bond revaluation gains.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line : Japanese wage growth is not as weak as it looks, the wage slump was mostly about bonuses.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
