Pantheon Publications

3 June 2025 UK Monitor Consumers are spending rather than saving

• Consumers are back to spending rather than saving, which should keep GDP growth ticking along.
• Households seem to be reducing saving, and borrowing on credit cards to support spending.
• Manufacturing is past the worst, and so far we see little sign of trade diversion cutting goods inflation.

May 2025 - Latin America Chartbook

TRADE TRUCE BRINGS LATAM MODEST GAINS…

• …BUT DOMESTIC FRAGILITIES UNDERMINE GROWTH PROSPECTS

PM Datatnote: GDP & PMI, Switzerland, Q1/May 2025

In one line: Switzerland was on a tear before the tariff shock; surveys point to slower growth in Q2. 

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 2 June 2025: Korean PMI shows domestic demand tanking

Korean PMI shows domestic demand tanking, but sentiment is improving thanks to tariff war pause

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, May

• In one line: Near-zero inflation is once again around the corner.

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, April

• In one line: A partially welcome collapse in the surplus.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 2 June 2025

A partially welcome collapse in Indonesia’s trade surplus
Near-zero inflation is once again around the corner

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, May 24

Cracks starting to show in the labor market.

PM Datanote: US Advance Goods Trade, April

Net trade and inventories on course for a big combined boost to headline GDP in Q2.

PM Datanote: US Personal Income & Spending, April

Consumption still resilient, but a slowdown looms.

PM Datanote: GDP, First Quarter, Brazil, 2025

• In one line: Boost­ed by agriculture and capex, but momentum set to fade. 

PM Datanote: Retail Sales and Industrial Production, Chile, April, 2025

• In one line: Retail softens in April, but growth momentum is holding up.

EM Asia Datanote: GDP, India, Q1

• In one line: Boosted by investment, which can’t be relied upon post-“Liberation Day”.

PM Datatnote: EZ Money Supply and Detailed Q1 GDP in Italy

In one line: Upturn in money supply continues; Italian GDP on a solid footing in Q1.

EZ Datanote: State CPIs, Germany, May 2025

In one line: Strong, but remember difference in base effects in the CPI and HICP. 

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, March

• In one line: Disregard completely; household spending is still weakening.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, April 2025

In one line: Consumption growth will slow in Q2. 

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 30 May 2025

The April collapse in Philippine imports in context

2 June 2025 US Monitor Weaker consumers' spending and higher core inflation lie ahead

• Consumers’ spending is on track for respectable growth in Q2, but a sharper slowdown looms...
• ...As tariff-induced prices increases push up core PCE inflation, weighing on real incomes.
• Tariff-related distortions to the trade and inventories likely will artificially boost Q2 GDP growth.

2 June 2025 LatAm Monitor A strong start to 2025 for Brazil, but the outlook remains cautious

• A record agricultural harvest fuelled Brazil’s Q1 growth, but momentum is likely to slow.
• Services and capex held up, while industrial output shrank due to restrictive monetary policy.
• The job market’s resilience complicates the COPOM’s position, but conditions will deteriorate soon enough.