- In one line: Falling inflation raises expectations of an interest rate cut this month.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Falling inflation raises expectations of an interest rate cut this month.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Seasonal impact from the Lunar New Year results in a jump to services inflation.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: China exports to emerging markets rise strongly in Jan-Feb; the jump in the year-to-date headline was due partly to base effects.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Ringgit weakness worries BNM, but its opting for non-rate measures.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Ringgit weakness worries BNM, but its opting for non-rate measures.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Ignore volatility in major orders; the trend in core orders is still down.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Japanese wages pick up, in advance of the Spring union talks
China exports to emerging markets rise strongly in Jan-Feb
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
The H2 recovery in Philippine sales is stagnating, at best
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Falling hiring plans and rising layoff fears signal a substantial slowdown in spring payroll growth.
- Cyclical job growth is likely to grind to a halt, or worse, leaving only demographics boosting employment.
- ISM manufacturing still stuck in a depressed range, but a modest spring revival is still a decent bet.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The swift decline in inflation in Mexico paves the way for a potential interest rate reduction this month.
- Services inflation remains sticky, but softening economic activity indicates an upcoming downtrend.
- Brazil’s industry had a bad start to 2024, but leading indicators point to brighter conditions on the horizon.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BNM opted to hold rates at its March meeting, as inflation remains benign and growth intact.
- It signalled that the MYR is undervalued, but we expect it not to turn to interest rates to address this.
- The slump in Philippine sales is nearly a year old, underscoring the weakness of household budgets.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s export growth increased in January-to-February, partly due to the low base from last year.
- Exports to emerging markets have risen noticeably, while shipments to ASEAN were flat.
- New measures are being proposed at the NPC to prop up domestic demand and the property market.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The ECB will cut its policy rate in June, barring a big upside surprise in the inflation numbers.
- Markets now see 100bp-worth of cuts this year; we think the ECB is happy with this picture.
- Factory orders in Germany crashed in January, but mostly due to volatility in major orders.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We look for PAYE employment to rise 30K in February and the unemployment rate to stay at 3.8%.
- We expect a 0.4% month-to-month rise in average weekly earnings ex bonuses...
- ...Leaving year-over-year wage growth on track to exceed the MPC’s Q1 forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Expected interest rate cuts breathe life into house building.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A poor start to the year, but the outlook is improving.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: The leap in exports is not backed by the surveys.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
