Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- In one line: Rising car registrations signals recovering underlying economic activity.
- In one line: The Construction PMI will continue to recover as tariff uncertainty fades and Government investment soars.
In one line: Another bleak construction PMI read.
In one line: Q2 was a quarter to forget in French manufacturing; Spain is looking better.
In one line: Poor, but falling turnover at odds with the surveys.
Philippine inflation still comfortably below the BSP’s range
- In one line: Happy days as growth improves and inflation slows; the MPC could welcome the news with another cut in August.
- In one line: Rebounding employment expectations suggest inflation pressure will remain stubborn.
- In one line: June’s downward revisions to the PMI’s sub-indices were likely driven by oil prices, sentiment will continue to improve.
- In one line: Falling saving flows and rising corporate borrowing point to solid economic growth.
- In one line: House prices fall in June but returning buyer demand will push up prices soon.
- In one line: Better balanced growth after revisions bodes well.
HOUSE PRICES COLLAPSE IN APRIL...
- ...BUT THE RECOVERY IS ALREADY UNDERWAY
- June private payrolls ex-education and healthcare rose just 23K; revisions will reveal an even weaker picture.
- Hiring intentions remain depressed; new tax breaks are unlikely to offset tariff costs and uncertainty soon.
- The drop in unemployment looks like noise; payroll growth will undershoot the break-even rate in H2.
- Durable and capital goods output fell sharply in Brazil, highlighting weakness in domestic demand.
- Business sentiment and PMIs deteriorated further in June, indicating weaker output in coming quarters.
- Stable inflation and anchored expectations give BCRP room to stay neutral amid external volatility.
- Thai household debt has shrunk for the first time in over 20 years, but its ratio to GDP is still very high…
- …Consumer NPLs resumed their rise in Q1 after a Q4 stall; bad initial news for “You Fight, We Help”.
- Philippine inflation inched up in June; the low-CPI environment is yet to lift confidence meaningfully.
- Chinese policymakers are seemingly rethinking policy to rein in unbridled competition, after prior false starts.
- The key is political will—and a plan—to overcome vested interests, both local governments’ and firms’.
- Getting it right should lead to firmer pricing, stronger profits and less wasted capital investment.
- Tariffs will likely dominate this week; will Mr. Trump stick or twist in the negotiations with the EU?
- The near-term outlook for German manufacturing is better than what is implied by factory orders in May.
- EZ industrial production likely fell in May, reversing the jump in late Q1, ahead of US tariffs.
- A range of soft and hard data last week supported our call that the economy is rebounding from a soft patch.
- Fading uncertainty, and recovery after payback from tariff and tax front-running, help growth improve.
- The DMP shows the pace of disinflation easing too, so we still look for only one more rate cut this year.
A big jump in services inflation still looks unlikely.
