In one line: Solid, but not enough to prevent a poor Q2.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Philippine trade was flattered hugely by base effects in June
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
WEAK JOBS PUSHING THE MPC TO AN AUGUST CUT...
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
BI CUTS IN JULY; NEW BOT CHIEF TO RESTART EASING
- …EARLY Q2 GDP RESULTS ALL SEE UPSIDE SURPRISES
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Two-way trade in the Philippines easily beat the consensus in June, but base effects helped hugely…
- …Still, underlying the inflated headlines are real recoveries in chip exports and capital goods imports.
- Net exports will be the star of the show in next week’s Q2 GDP; we now see the headline at 5.3%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- EZ GDP edged higher in Q2, helped by Portugal, Spain and France; Germany and Italy stumbled.
- We’re slightly more upbeat on investment, but we still see Eurozone exports in goods falling by 1% in H2.
- Inflation in Spain jumped in July, threatening our dovish forecast for the EZ HICP.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate by 25bp on August 7 in response to weak payrolls.
- We expect two votes for a 50bp reduction, four for a 25bp cut and three for no change.
- The MPC will likely maintain “gradual and careful” guidance, but may need to mention neutral.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Near-term inflation expectations are easing.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Another big increase in Spanish GDP.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- US - The slide in the dollar looks like all pain and no gain
- EUROZONE - White smoke in Scotland: the EU and US strike a trade deal
- UK - Payroll falls should ease as tax hike drag begins to fade
- CHINA+ - BoJ official hints at brightening growth outlook after trade deal
- EM ASIA - Taiwan’s retail sales shrink in Q2; downside risk to our 6.4% GDP call
- LATAM - Brazil’s inflation plateaus as demand softens and disinflation forces build
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Brazil’s COPOM is likely to keep rates elevated amid sticky inflation, BRL volatility and fiscal uncertainty.
- Non-oil exports surged in Mexico, led by electronics, while the auto sector remains under pressure…
- …Imports signal economic slowdown, as capital goods and consumer demand shrink once again.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Spanish GDP rose by a whopping 0.7% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, after 0.6% in Q1.
- Growth in the Iberian country will now likely slow, but not as much as we previously thought.
- The Spanish and Belgian data—released yesterday—are still consistent with 0.2% growth in the EZ in Q2.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Credit is flowing to businesses and households, as economic uncertainty falls and borrowing costs drop.
- Saving flows temporarily spiked on cash ISA rumours, but the trend remains for lower household saving.
- Rising mortgage approvals suggest that the slowdown in the housing market is over.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A ten-month low, as consumer sectors continue to broadly weaken.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A ten-month low, as consumer sectors continue to broadly weaken.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
EZ ECONOMY SHOWS RESILIENCE IN THE FACE OF TARIFF THREATS…
- …SUB-2% SUMMER INFLATION WILL GET A SEPTEMBER RATE CUT OVER THE LINE
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
