- GDP growth soared in February as industrial production and services activity rose higher…
- …But the ongoing global trade war has made incoming data obsolete.
- The MPC will be challenged by a broken trading environment and CPI at 3.5% in H2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Tariffs will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Samuel TombsUS
A much bigger rise in claims lies ahead.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: Industry still supported Italian GDP in Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Easing back on; three more cuts to go, from our vantage point.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Easing back on; three more cuts to go, from our vantage point.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Resilience masks broader risk of a slowdown.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: MXN depreciation clouds the outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: MXN depreciation clouds the outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s core inflation is contained, allowing Banxico to cut rates despite mounting global trade uncertainty.
- Job creation improved slightly in March, but the Q1 performance signals deeper structural weakness.
- Brazil’s retail resilience faces mounting pressure from labour-market cooling and tight credit.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BSP restarted its easing cycle this month with a 25bp cut, to 5.50%, after February’s shock pause…
- …The Board is no longer behind the curve on CPI, as it slashed its 2025 forecast to 2.3%, from 3.5%.
- We’re maintaining our 2.5% CPI call, for now, and still see 75bp more in rate cuts by year-end.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China is unlikely to back down openly because of Mr. Xi’s personality and the country’s historical context.
- The State Council published a white paper outlining the official stance on Sino-US trade frictions.
- China will need to worry about second-order retaliation from the US via Vietnam and Mexico.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The 90-day delay to US tariffs, excluding China, is a stay of execution only; uncertainty remains high.
- Italian Prime Minister Meloni is the first EU leader to announce support to exporters hit by US tariff hikes.
- Italian public debt issuance will remain high this year, keeping BTP yields elevated.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Multiplying ONS errors increasingly hint at systemic problems that could affect more data series.
- The saving rate has disconnected from its usual economic drivers, so it may have been mis-estimated.
- Household income based on unreliable official job data is particularly subject to risk of error, we think.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Expect at least two more consecutive 25bp cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Expect at least two more consecutive 25bp cuts from the RBI
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Confidence crumbling even before "Liberation Day".
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Sticky due to temporary shocks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
