Pantheon Publications

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, May

• In one line: A—slightly—more credible print; consumption, in reality, slowed further in Q2.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

UK Datanote: UK GfK Consumers' Confidence Survey, July 2025

• In one line: Consumers’ confidence knocked by inflation and tax hike speculation.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Money & Credit, June 2025

• In one line: Consumers still look set to support GDP growth in H2.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

EZ Datanote: Advance inflation, France, July

In one line: No change; we still see the EZ HICP at 1.8% y/y.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Monetary policy meeting, Brazil, July, 2025

• In one line: On hold, signalling caution amid heightened uncertainty.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global

PM Datanote: Monetary policy meeting, Brazil, July, 2025

• In one line: On hold, signalling caution amid heightened uncertainty.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, June

Going nowhere fast.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Advance GDP, Q2

Underlying growth has slowed sharply since late 2024.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

Global Datanote: Advance GDP, US, Q2 2025

• In one line: Underlying growth has slowed sharply since late 2024.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Advance GDP, Mexico, Q2

• In one line: Solid momentum but headwinds lingering.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global

PM Datanote: Advance GDP, Mexico, Q2, 2025

• In one line: Solid momentum but headwinds lingering.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

Global Datanote: Politburo, China, Q2

In one line: China's Q2 Politburo meeting downplays trade risks, focuses on domestic issues like price wars

Duncan WrigleyGlobal

1 August 2025 US Monitor Consumers' spending to stagnate as real incomes flatline

• The meager growth in consumers’ spending in the first half of this year probably will continue in the second.
• Modest gains in nominal incomes will struggle to keep up with the post-tariff jump in consumer prices.
• We see core PCE inflation hitting 3¼% by year-end, but expect the Fed to prioritize the softening labor market.

Samuel TombsUS

1 August 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil holds rates steady as tariffs cloud growth and inflation outlook

• The COPOM kept rates on hold and a cautious tone, highlighting persistent inflation and global risks…
• …US tariffs raise external threats, but exemptions soften the impact on Brazil’s key export sectors.
• BCCh resumed its easing cycle with a 25bp cut, signalling a gradual return to neutral if warranted.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

1 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwan's Q2 GDP bolstered by strong exports, but that's about it

• Taiwanese GDP growth rose to 8.0% in Q2, from 5.5%, driven by extremely strong exports…
• …Other components were basically non-existent; investment suffered a sharp slowdown.
• Exports may not be driven purely by front-loading, as genuine demand exists for chips, thanks to AI.

Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia

1 August 2025 China+ Monitor BoJ strikes a cautious tone, while staying put on interest rates

• The BoJ yesterday kept the policy rate on hold at 0.5%, as widely expected.
• The Bank remains cautious about the growth outlook, despite the US-Japan trade deal.
• The BoJ did raise its inflation forecast though, because of food inflation.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

1 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ inflation in July not as decisively dovish as we were expecting

• HICP inflation held steady in France in July, but dipped in Germany and Italy.
• The month-to-month changes in HICP prices point to EZ headline inflation staying at 2.0% in July.
• EZ unemployment was unchanged at a record low in June; we still expect a small rise by year-end.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 August 2025 UK Monitor Setting probabilities around our Bank Rate forecast

• Our central Bank Rate forecast is hawkish, assuming only one more cut this year and none next year.
• A probability-weighted average of three scenarios is more dovish but still above the market in 2026.
• Continued sharp payroll falls or easing inflation expectations would shift us to more dovish scenarios. 

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP/ESI, EZ, Q2 2025/July 2025

In one line: EZ GDP growth slows from tariff front-running boost in Q1. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Italy & Germany, Q2 2025

In one line: German and Italian GDP both fall by 0.1% q/q; available data now point to 0.1% increase in EZ GDP. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone