Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- Unemployment hit a five-year high in December, meaning the MPC will cut Bank Rate in March.
- But the LFS data remain unreliable, while other indicators suggest a stabilising labour market.
- Strong retail sales and a jump in the PMI leave GDP on track to rise by 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1.
Relapsing independently of the snowstorms.
In one line: EZ consumer sentiment up once again, but by only a bit this time.
Much weaker GDP growth of about 2% now looks likely in Q4
- In one line: Activity ended 2025 on a soft note, reinforcing the case for easing ahead.
- In one line: Activity ended 2025 on a soft note, reinforcing the case for easing ahead.
In one line: Things are looking up, aside from a small bump in the road in January.
JANUARY PAYROLLS ARE JUST A FLASH IN THE PAN...
- ...SLOW JOB GAINS & LOWER INFLATION WILL SPUR EASING
- The blowout in the trade deficit and revisions to the inventories numbers point to 2% GDP growth in Q4...
- ...but final sales to private domestic purchasers likely rose by about 21/2%, in line with previous quarters.
- Core PCE inflation likely undershot the FOMC’s forecast in Q4, mostly due to measurement issues.
- Activity in Brazil ended 2025 softly, with services weakening and industry hurt by tight conditions…
- …Imminent rate cuts and fiscal support will likely steady growth, though risks remain elevated.
- A chronic lack of stability and voter disaffection cloud elections in Peru, but fundamentals are the key.
- ECB President Lagarde is rumoured to be stepping down early, to pre-empt a populist successor.
- Horse-trading for the presidency and two other Executive Board seats now begins.
- We doubt an early change in ECB President would drive a big policy shift at the Bank this year.
- Insolvencies fell year-over-year in January despite months of political chaos causing weaker growth.
- Retail insolvencies have risen, likely as 2025’s payroll-tax and minimum-wage hikes hit the sector hard.
- But overall business failures should drop a little in 2026, as growth recovers and borrowing costs fall.
Less to the recent upturns than initially meets the eye.
Permits still lower than in early 2025; a further drop beckons.
- In one line: Inflation miss too small to stop a March rate cut, but stubborn services inflation means a second cut this year is far from certain.
- In one line: The housing market was resilient in 2025, but prices will rise more quickly in 2026.
In one line: Fall in electricity prices offset by higher prices at the petrol pump.
The outlook for homebuilders remains tough.
- The recent stabilization in building permits probably will be short-lived, given the inventory overhang…
- …Residential construction spending and employment look set to remain under pressure.
- Rising industrial production is mostly due to AI and aircraft demand, not an emerging tariff boost.
