Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Tokyo headline inflation steady, after launch of childcare subsidies
- Thai customs export growth missed expectations in August, as the surge in US shipments finally turned.
- Short-term leading indicators point to much more downside ahead, while THB strength will only hurt.
- The one consolation is that the supply-side reaction to falling exports is unlikely to be as painful.
- - CHINA LIKELY TO LAUNCH INVESTMENT STIMULUS SOON
- - BOJ SHOULD STILL HIKE, DESPITE POLITICAL RUCTIONS
- - KOREA’S EXPORTS TUMBLE IN SEPTEMBER
- Spending numbers up to August point to 3% growth in third quarter consumption...
- ...But that pace looks unsustainable, given the myriad headwinds facing households.
- Real after-tax incomes are flatlining, the saving rate is already low, and balance sheets are more fragile.
- Monetary policy in Mexico is shifting cautiously, as inflation is sticky and growth prospects weaker.
- The trade deficit widened in August due to the oil sector and tariff-related external uncertainty.
- MXN appreciation and USMCA compliance support stability, despite ongoing external and fiscal risks.
- The RBI’s meeting on Wednesday is ‘live’, and we’re with the minority for a fresh 25bp rate cut.
- Indonesia’s final 2026 budget—that is, Mr. Purbaya’s first—reveals his less hawkish hand…
- …We’re more convinced now that the deficit will hit the 3%-of-GDP limit in 2026, given the rosy targets.
- China is preparing to counter the recent demand and investment slump with targeted stimulus…
- …Policy banks will likely provide RMB500B—leveraged up several times—to unblock local project investment.
- Steady Tokyo consumer inflation won’t shift the BoJ’s determination to normalise interest rates.
- We look for an upside surprise in EZ inflation this week, and a further blow to ECB easing hopes.
- Consumer inflation expectations tilt hawkish, but market-based expectations look dovish.
- Inflation expectations overall support the baseline in markets for the ECB to stay on hold, for now.
- Data in the past month have been a mixed bag, but underlying activity is holding up well.
- We retain our call for quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.2% in Q3, matching the consensus estimate.
- Solid growth will limit the emergence of spare capacity, keeping the MPC on hold for the rest of 2025.
High prices are holding back sales.
Economy's momentum looks strong in Q3 but unlikely to last.
- In one line: Inflation benign despite September uptick.
In one line: Stability in consumer confidence; robust details in EZ money supply.
In one line: No cut today; is the SNB easing cycle over?
In one line: No cut today; is the SNB easing cycle over?
IGNORE INDIA’S ‘HOT’ Q2 GDP; Q3 SHAPING UP TO BE
MUCH MORE SOLID
- …FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY IN INDONESIA IS IN FLUX
- In one line: Little news, as underlying services inflation settling in the low-4%'s will keep the MPC on hold for the rest of this year.
- In one line: A slightly more cautious MPC will keep rates on hold for the rest of the year.
- In one line: House price inflation will remain weak as the Budget weighs on sentiment.
- In one line:Ms. Reeves has a revenue problem.
