- Presidents Sheinbaum and Trump agreed to pause tariffs, focusing on border-security cooperation.
- BanRep held interest rates at 9.5%, surprising the consensus, citing inflation and Petro-Trump tensions.
- Increasing inflation expectations and high labour costs are further threats, but BanRep will cut again.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The PMIs show that regional manufacturing is still largely waning; watch for potential US front-loading.
- Indonesia’s shockingly low January CPI was policy-induced and will reverse; it masked a jump in food.
- Fiscal policy in India will stay contractionary, but the government riskily is hoping for a pain-free FY26.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- President Trump will soon impose tariffs on imports from the EU, but the details are still up in the air.
- A 10pp increase in tariffs on EU goods is all but fully factored in by the drop in EURUSD since Q3.
- EZ headline and core inflation beat the consensus in January; still no perfect landing at 2% in sight.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We think President Trump’s tariffs, by fracturing supply chains, will be stagflationary for the UK.
- We expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 2.8% in January, 0.3pp more than the MPC expected.
- Goods inflation will slow, but airfares and private-school fees will boost services inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In much better shape than the headline suggests
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: A huge, albeit temporary, gift from the new government.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Not the best of starts to 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Not the best of starts to 2025 for ASEAN manufacturing
A huge, albeit temporary, CPI gift from Indonesia’s new government
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Caixin PMI holds up better than official index
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's Caixin PMI holds up better than official index
Korean PMI rebounds with underlying export growth in decent shape
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: On hold, as uncertainty has increased substantially.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: On hold, as uncertainty has increased substantially.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
A sub-4% saving rate is unsustainable.
Samuel TombsUS
A sub-4% saving rate is unsustainable.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
The case for softer services inflation remains intact.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: A respectable Q4 comeback, to close out 2024.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Unemployment is still rising; soft state CPIs can’t be extrapolated to the HICP.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: A solid end to the year, explaining the cautious tone of the BCCh.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
