Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
ECB HAS FURTHER ROOM TO EASE POLICY...
...BUT WE ARE CLOSER TO NEUTRAL THAN MARKETS BELIEVE
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We look for a 0.13% increase in the November core PCE deflator, easing fears about sticky inflation.
- The unemployment rate probably still rose in December, despite the slight fall in continuing claims.
- The recent upturn in home sales is unlikely to last now that mortgage rates are rising again.
Samuel TombsUS
- A deteriorating near-term inflation outlook will force the BCCh to move to the sidelines in Q1.
- Colombia’s economy started Q4 robustly, but it is too soon to bet on a smooth ride in H1.
- Fiscal noise is forcing the BCB to intervene in Brazil’s FX market, but this will be insufficient.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BSP lowered the target reverse repo rate for a third straight meeting, by 25bp to 5.75%…
- …While maintaining its goal of “less restrictive” policy, despite expecting higher inflation next year.
- We expect average inflation to fall further in 2025, opening the door wide to 100bp more cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Japan’s central bank left the policy rate unchanged yesterday, with one dissenter voting for a rate hike.
- Governor Ueda was less hawkish; he needs more clarity on wages and Mr. Trump’s policy before hiking.
- The BoJ didn’t want to tie its hands, keeping a January hike alive while making March plausible.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Three MPC members supporting an immediate rate cut keeps a February reduction odds-on…
- ...But it is not a dead cert, as the cautious MPC minutes give rate-setters the option to skip February.
- MPC members went for flexibility, eschewing any commitment to cutting at specific meetings.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Political uncertainty weighed on business sentiment in France in December…
- ...Politically-driven sentiment moves don’t usually translate into hard data, but growth will still slow.
- Services trade figures in the EZ current account point to downside risk to our EZ net trade call in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Multi-family volatility obscures the weak big picture.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Most FOMC members envisage easing by just 50bp in 2025, but rising unemployment will spur more.
- WARN and Challenger data point to a renewed rise in jobless claims and an above-consensus print today.
- A rare rise in the Leading Economic Index in November will grab attention today, but it should be ignored.
Samuel TombsUS
- Brazil — Fiscal risk and political noise
- Mexico — At a crossroads ahead of a tricky H1
- Argentina — Emerging from years of economic turmoil
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Bank Indonesia and the Bank of Thailand stood pat on rates yesterday, in line with market expectations.
- BI’s anxiety over the IDR is probably a red herring, and fiscal policy is in no position to provide support.
- Pay more heed to the BoT’s increasingly worried tone, not its still-rosy GDP forecasts for 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- EZ inflation rose less than previously thought in November, to 2.2%—rather than 2.3%—from 2.0%.
- It will increase further in December, and risks to our call for a 2.5% print are to the upside.
- The headline will fall in early 2025, allowing the ECB to cut rates further, less than markets expect though.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A tobacco duty hike combined with base effects to lift headline CPI inflation to 2.6% in December.
- Tax hikes, fading energy deflation and stubborn services prices will raise CPI inflation to 3.1% in April.
- The MPC has to balance weak output against rising inflation; we look for three 25bp rate cuts in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Output and inflation head in opposite directions, leaving the MPC with a difficult trade-off.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Rebounding house prices show buyers are unfazed by stabilising mortgage rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Duties and base effects drive up CPI inflation, which will rise to 3.1% in April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
INDIA’S SLUMP HAS BEEN LONG IN THE MAKING
- …A SOFT END TO THE YEAR FOR ASEAN MANUFACTURING
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
STAGFLATIONARY TAXES = GRADUAL RATE CUTS...
- …BUT SOURING SENTIMENT MAY FORCE FASTER ACTION
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Construction escaped recession in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: EZ inflation rose less than previously thought in November; another rise this month is likely.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
