In one line: Above consensus; September cut hangs in the balance.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- Sticky core inflation and rising wage risk delay further cuts in Colombia, despite headline disinflation.
- Governor Villar flagged the worsening public finances; FM Bonilla offered little clarity on budget plans.
- We expect a shallow easing cycle, with cuts resuming only if inflation risks ease meaningfully.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Swiss headline inflation rose in July, lifting our profile for the coming months…
- ...But downside risks are mounting, not least as we now see a recession in H2 from higher trade tariffs.
- We still expect the SNB to cut its key policy rate by 25bp in September, to -0.25%.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect CPI inflation to rise to 3.7% in July from 3.6% in June, as motor fuel prices increase.
- We see upside risk to our goods price call after strong BRC Shop Price inflation and flash Eurozone CPI.
- We now expect inflation to peak at 4.0% in September, up from 3.8% previously, as food price inflation rises.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Above consensus; September cut hangs in the balance.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
A further climb in goods inflation is still in the pipeline.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: A further climb in goods inflation is still in the pipeline.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)Global
- In one line: Revisions reveal a sharp slowdown; September easing incoming.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)Global
Revisions reveal a sharp slowdown; September easing incoming.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: Industrial output disappoints again as tariffs loom.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Mining volatility drags on Q2, but growth outlook holds firm.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Mining volatility drags on Q2, but growth outlook holds firm.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: A blow for ECB doves and September rate cut hopes.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: A blow for ECB doves and September rate cut hopes.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Manufacturing activity should gradually recover as tariff-uncertainty fades.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The housing market recovery is underway.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Discount the base effects lifting food inflation; the headline should now stabilise.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
