Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Drops in the openings-to-unemployment ratio and quits signals slower wage growth ahead.
- In one line: Retail and manufacturing support growth, labour market improving at the margin.
- In one line: A collapse long in the making; still some way to go before growth falls back down to earth.
In one line: China’s industrial profit rebound lacks breadth, with only seven industries show accelerating positive gains.
- The government shutdown will hold up key data releases and likely will drag on economic growth.
- Another 25bp easing from the Fed at its next meeting seems like prudent risk-management.
- The effective tariff rate has now crept up to just 12%, and a further climb is likely in the next few months.
- Brazilian Real — Gains fade after early rally
- Mexican Peso — Resilient, but facing resistance
- Argentinian Peso — Volatility as political noise builds
- The RBI stayed on hold yesterday, but two members called for more dovish implied forward guidance…
- …Its latest GDP forecasts reveal no real faith in the stimulative impact of GST 2.0; we concur.
- Bank on ASEAN’s robust September PMI at your own risk, as underlying it is a very skewed picture.
- Korea’s working-day-adjusted export value growth fell sharply in September, partly due to base effects.
- Manufacturing activity grew the most in 13 months, but the US ‘chip content’ tariff renews uncertainty.
- We expect the BoK to cut rates by 25bp in Q4, once financial stability risk from the housing market lessens.
- Decimals proved dovish in the September HICP, but the main message from the report is hawkish.
- We still see EZ inflation above 2% in Q4, which would make it difficult for the ECB to cut in December.
- We’re lowering our inflation forecasts slightly, but our baseline remains higher than the ECB’s.
- Gilt auctions are still well supported, and financial conditions are orderly, despite high uncertainty…
- ...but yields will remain high as the MPC stays on hold and markets demand a premium for political risk.
- We expect 10-year and 30-year gilt yields to end 2025 at their current rates of 4.7% and 5.5%, respectively.
In one line: Risks tilted to an upside surprise in the CPI; jobless claims should fall back next month.
- In one line: Manufacturing output will slowly recover in the coming months.
- In one line: The PMI cools in September but growth will still run at a healthy pace in Q3.
- In one line: Growth still reliant on government, but business investment growing through the H1 headwinds is an encouraging sign.
- In one line: Confident consumers and rising corporate credit flow signal healthy GDP growth.
In one line: Inflation up, but less than we expected; spending, ex-services is flat.
In one line: Broad improvement ahead of investment stimulus
In one line: Manufacturing sector improved ahead of investment stimulus
In one line: On track for a small decline in Q3.
