Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Still pointing to a weaker labor market, but big recent revisions raise questions.
- In one line: Core pressures keep inflation near 4%, limiting Banxico’s room to ease.
- AI-related capex and wealth effects from gains in tech stocks were major growth tailwinds in 2025.
- AI’s impact on productivity is less clear, although we see tentative signs of an small boost emerging.
- The impact on the labor market still appears modest, despite the scare stories.
- The BoT surprised almost all forecasters, including us, with an extra 25bp cut to its policy rate to 1.00%.
- At the same time, though, it has conceded the battle against structurally subdued GDP growth…
- …We still believe that 1.00% will mark the terminal rate, but more CPI misses could force another cut.
- EZ inflation will likely stay low in February, but the bar for further ECB easing remains high…
- …A rebound in liquid fuel inflation is the main near-term upside risk to EZ inflation.
- German domestic demand posted strong growth in Q4; just what the doctor ordered.
- The latest public finances data will support the Chancellor by showing borrowing below profile.
- But the headline figures flatter the overall picture, where spending pressures are higher.
- We expect the OBR to revise down borrowing in 2030/31 slightly, though policy U-turns are mounting.
In one line: LPRs unchanged, with China relying on fiscal policy to support growth
In one line: LPRs unchanged, with China relying on fiscal policy to support growth
- US - Does 2025 consumption data support the K-shaped narrative?
- EUROZONE - EZ February PMIs keep alive the idea of a modest cyclical upturn
- UK - March rate cut highly likely after jobless rate hits 5 year high
- CHINA+ - Momentum but no boom in the Year of the Horse
- EM ASIA - Has the sun set on Taiwan’s non-electronics industries?
- LATAM - Mexico activity stabilises after Q4 rebound, but risks loom in 2026
- February regional Fed surveys point to sluggish growth in activity and continued capex caution.
- Employment intentions are unchanged from 2025; wage expectations point to inflation returning to 2%.
- The Conference Board survey’s labor market components point to further weakness ahead.
- Food volatility lifted headline inflation in Mexico, but underlying dynamics remain the policy constraint.
- Core inflation is moderating slightly, yet stickiness in services is keeping Banxico cautious about easing.
- Gradual disinflation supports rate cuts in Q2, though risks remain tilted modestly upwards.
- Malaysian exports continue to defy expectations, soaring by 19.6% in January, due to the AI boom…
- …CPI inflation remains elevated, but only because of a sewerage cost increase that affected housing.
- Singaporean core inflation showed a surprise seasonally adjusted month-to-month decline.
- INSEE survey data point to downside risk to growth in French domestic demand, ex-inventories, in Q1.
- Investment in France is still struggling, and consumption growth is vulnerable to a reversal.
- We’re lowering our full-year 2026 growth forecast for France by 0.3pp, to 1.0%.
- A surge in retail sales growth in January points to upside risk to GDP growth in Q1.
- The PMI suggests that business sentiment is also improving as policy uncertainty wanes.
- But the dismal weather so far this year means we hold fire on raising our Q1 growth forecast from 0.3%.
- The share of total consumption by the top 20% has been remarkable stable at 40% over the last 25 years.
- New sectoral data show no connection between the spending share of the top 20% and growth last year.
- High-income households became more cautious, accumulating liquid assets more quickly than in 2024.
- Mexico’s Q4 GDP growth beat expectations, driven by strength in services, and easing inflation.
- Retail sales and leading indicators improved, but job-market cooling tempers domestic-demand outlook.
- Banxico is pausing easing, as trade risk, fiscal tightening and sticky core inflation constrain the outlook.
- Booming Korean exports in the first 20 days of February are mainly a semiconductor story…
- …Chip exports skyrocketed almost 180% thanks to rising prices and volumes.
- The BoK is likely to hold rates on Friday, despite soft activity outside the tech sector.
- Booming Korean exports in the first 20 days of February are mainly a semiconductor story…
- …Chip exports skyrocketed almost 180% thanks to rising prices and volumes.
- The BoK is likely to hold rates on Friday, despite soft activity outside the tech sector.
- Mr. Trump’s new tariffs on the EU are little changed, but will they shift the timing of US imports?…
- …A universal US tariff reduces the disinflationary threat to EZ core goods from Chinese dumping.
- Italian energy prices will fall further this year, as the government aims to lower electricity and gas prices.
