Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Erratic computer games and hotel prices drag inflation down, headline inflation will still likely jump to 3.5% in April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Enough softening for the MPC to cut, but strong wage growth will keep rate setters cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices rise in February but property price inflation will ease in Q2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Retail sales continue to grow strongly but slowing global growth clouds the outlook.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Ignore Indonesia’s larger-than-expected surplus in March; export growth will be weaker from Q2.
- Expect more downside this month after Indian inflation fell to a five-year-plus low in March…
- …Our food-price tracker indicates downside risks are still intensifying; our 2025 CPI call is now 3.0%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- US - Few alarms yet in high-frequency data; business surveys weaker
- EUROZONE - A dovish, but also conditional, pivot from the ECB
- UK - Wages stay strong and inflation heading to 3.5% in April
- CHINA+ - China’s strategic pivot to ASEAN in the face of tariff pressures
- EM ASIA service is on holiday this week; returning next week
- LATAM - Mexico’s industrial rebound masks structural weakness and policy risks
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Fear of a severe economic and market hit will dissuade President Trump from firing Chair Powell...
- ...But the president’s tariffs show he is willing to throw caution to the wind on economic policy.
- The S&P Global PMI likely will indicate higher goods inflation, but services inflation remaining in check.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Colombia’s economic rebound continues, thanks to falling inflation and resilient services…
- …But other sector performances remain uneven and fragile, and financial volatility poses a growing risk.
- The US–China trade war is a threat to key exports and investment; domestic policy options are narrowing.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- China’s Q1 GDP growth relied heavily on net exports, highlighting the need to boost domestic demand.
- But new residential-property sales have waned this year, notably in oversupplied markets.
- Policymakers will prioritise job creation by supporting consumer services and construction.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- We look for a chunky decline in the April PMIs; falling new orders likely will bear the brunt of the hit.
- The euro’s rise is supported by strong portfolio inflows, which look set to continue in Q2.
- Is euro strength a sign of a more structural shift in FX reserve portfolios? Perhaps, but it’s too soon to say.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The gilt market continues to function well, but yields have been volatile.
- The gilt curve has steepened as markets reprice for more interest rate cuts from the MPC.
- Longer-dated gilts have sold off and remain vulnerable to policy developments.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In LatAm, Mexico is by far the most exposed to US tariffs and global economic slowdown risk.
- Commodity-price declines and Chinese weakness add fresh headwinds to regional export growth.
- Currency volatility, weaker remittances and soft capex will drag, but rate cuts offer relief.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Argentina has begun to dismantle the ‘cepo’, marking an historic shift towards currency normalisation.
- The FX liberalisation narrows gaps, boosts confidence and marks a break from past interventionism.
- Short-term inflation risks prevail, but fiscal and monetary tightening are restoring macro discipline.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- President Xi concluded his tour of South-East Asian countries to push economic co-operation.
- China is leveraging on its large market in the face of worries over second-order retaliatory measures.
- China has appointed trade veteran Li as its new chief negotiator, signalling a readiness to talk.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The ECB is making a dovish shift, conditional on a benign tariff outcome for core inflation.
- Energy prices and the euro can be cruel mistresses for policymakers looking for signals on inflation.
- Markets are pricing in the tail-risk for ECB rates; we still think the Bank will be more conservative.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Weaker-than-expected March inflation makes a May interest rate cut a racing certainty.
- Solid pre-tariff growth means we look for only three more 25bp Bank Rate cuts this year…
- …But downside risks allow earlier moves; we expect back-to-back ‘insurance’ cuts in May and June.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The Department of Government Efficiency will achieve only a fraction of its spending cut targets…
- …So reduced federal spending looks set to be only a small headwind for the economy.
- The DOGE federal job cuts are also on course to have only a minor impact on the overall labor market.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
No real sign yet of tariff-linked layoffs.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Further signs of uncertainty weighing on housing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Pre-tariff jump in manufacturing output likely to reverse sharply.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
