In one line: Japan’s exports were a mixed bag in November; expect more headwinds in 2025.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan’s manufacturing PMI rebounds, Services activity improves ahead of festive season
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
China's November activity data disappoints again, but property prices show improvement
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China's credit demand from the real economy slows to two-decade low
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: CEWC Takeaway: China prioritises demand-boosting policies for 2025, but details revealed remain underwhelming.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: CEWC Takeaway: China prioritises demand-boosting policies for 2025, but details revealed remain underwhelming.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s export growth weakens amid slowing global demand
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s Politburo sets the tone for 2025: "Moderately loose" monetary policy and “more" proactive fiscal plans
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s producer price deflation eases in November amid signs of stimulus impact
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s consumer inflation sinks further in November, led by weaker food prices, but core inflation shows signs of stabilisation
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s foreign reserves rise unexpectedly in November, with policy banks likely shouldering some outflow pressures
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- In one line: Nationwide’s house price index rises in December to cap a recovery in the housing market in 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The manufacturing PMI drops in December as demand weakens and sentiment sours.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Colombia’s BanRep is adopting a cautious stance amid weaker COP and persistent inflation pressures.
- Fiscal pressures and political dynamics are complicating the economic recovery across LatAm.
- Emerging-market risks are rising as global financial conditions tighten and external noise intensifies.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Manufacturing payrolls have been falling for several months, and construction looks vulnerable too.
- Job losses in these sectors have often signaled trouble for the broader labor market and economy.
- We think the economy is in a more fragile position than markets and the commentariat appreciate.
Samuel TombsUS
- The manufacturing PMI for ASEAN slipped in December, to 50.7, as its DM members faltered…
- …But the headline is largely stabilising, as orders find their feet while price pressures remain muted.
- Indonesian CPI sprung no surprises in December; consensus seems blind to further food disinflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The December PMI reports Korean manufacturers at their most pessimistic since June 2020.
- Export growth showed a markedly slower trend in Q4, with broad weakness across regional markets.
- The government forecasts export growth to plunge to 1.5% in 2025, from 8.2% in 2024.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- We cut our Q4 growth forecast to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter, following a string of weak data.
- The labour market remains tight, and wage growth is still running above target-consistent levels.
- The MPC will proceed cautiously and cut three times in 2025: in February, May and November.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- German unemployment held steady in December, but surveys warn of further increases in Q1.
- We think EZ HICP inflation rose by 0.3pp in December, to 2.5%, 0.1pp above the consensus.
- The upturn in German retail sales is intact, but manufacturing is still stuck in the mud.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Sustained weakness in manufacturing; upturn in real M1 growth is accelerating.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
