In one line: ECB doves were saved by France and Italy.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Payroll tax hikes boost inflation and cut growth; the MPC will be cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: December BRC distorted by the late Black Friday, underlying retail sales volumes continue growing modestly.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Construction output continues to grow solidly, despite PMI drop in December.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: New car registrations growth continues to recover from the Budget-induced October weakness.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Brazilian Real — Fiscal concerns and global uncertainty
- Colombian Peso — Starting Q1 on a stronger footing
- Chilean Peso — Struggling amid global risks
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- A crash in major orders pushed German factory orders down in November; surveys remain poor.
- The upturn in German retail sales in Q4 is on track, despite soft data for October and November.
- French consumers’ unemployment fears are soaring, warning of a further rise in joblessness in Q1.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect GDP to rise 0.2% month-to-month in November, driven by services and mining.
- Upside risks to our call could arise from energy output, GP appointments and hospitality.
- We continue to forecast 0.1% quarter-to-quarter GDP growth in Q4.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Another soft inflation print in France; soft core in Switzerland.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Huge revisions put a more positive spin on Philippine sales
Oil-sensitive components drive the December rise in inflation
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- US - Payroll growth likely was sluggish again in December
- EUROZONE - All set for another ‘gradualist’ 25bp rate cut from the ECB
- UK - Forecast review: slow growth and fast inflation to keep MPC cautious
- CHINA+ - Korean business sentiment dives due to political crisis; trade risks rise
- EM ASIA - A few silver linings in otherwise soft December ASEAN PMI
- LATAM - Kicking off 2025 with monetary policy and economic challenges
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Peru’s inflation ended 2024 in the target range; this will allow the BCRP to cut the main rate to neutral.
- Risks loom for the economy; political uncertainty and global trade dynamics challenge future growth.
- Brazil’s trade balance shrank in Q4, but we expect a gradual upturn in 2025 as domestic demand slows.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Philippine inflation surprised to the upside in December, but the culprits should be temporary…
- …We still see average inflation of just 2.4% in 2025; core inflation isn’t yet making a real comeback.
- Thai CPI was softer than expected last month, and the 2025 consensus could do with a downgrade.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s currency is under pressure from expectations of more PBoC easing and a less dovish Fed.
- Foreign reserves fell sizeably in December, driven primarily by currency and bond valuation effects.
- Some of China’s policy firepower has been saved, to be deployed depending on future US trade policy.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- EZ inflation data are in line with further gradualism from the ECB this month, implying a 25bp cut.
- We still see little chance of either EZ headline or core inflation making a perfect landing at 2%.
- Outright deflation is a remote risk in Switzerland; the SNB will make a final 25bp rate cut in March.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect CPI inflation to be unchanged at 2.6% in December, 0.1pp above the MPC’s forecast.
- Weak airfares inflation in December—due to early CPI collection—should offset fading energy deflation.
- We expect CPI inflation to rise in the New Year, reaching 3.2% in April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Hot; EZ inflation to overshoot the consensus tomorrow.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
