In one line: Disappointing, but still consistent with a rise in Q4.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Real import demand in the Philippines was due a correction
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Hit by declines in Germany and France; services are still holding up overall.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Claims are noisy at the turn of the year; forward-looking indicators point to a renewed rise ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: Undershooting expectations; a relief for the BCCh.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Undershooting expectations; a relief for the BCCh.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- December inflation data for Mexico and Chile suggest their central banks will remain cautious in Q1.
- Headline inflation in Mexico fell to the lowest level since 2021, but core inflation edged up in late Q4.
- Chile’s underlying disinflation trend continued in December, but the CLP sell-off is a near-term threat.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Taiwan’s export growth moderated in December, though the headline was tarnished by base effects…
- …Import growth nearly doubled to 30.4%, from 19.8% in November, pulling down the trade surplus.
- Headline inflation remained stubborn in December, at 2.1%, due to a continued rise in food inflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s CPI inched closer to deflation in December; fresh food and pork prices were the main drags.
- Core inflation improved for the third straight month, highlighting stabilising demand conditions.
- PPI reflation hinges on stimulus-related demand and how China addresses its overcapacity issue.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Bunds now align with our 2025 forecasts, but they’ve likely come a little too far, too fast.
- The balance of risks for German Q4 GDP has shifted to the upside, but we still see zero growth.
- A fall in inventories is the key risk to Germany’s Q4 GDP print, offsetting a further rise in consumption.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
We expect CPI inflation to remain at 2.6% in December, 0.1pp above the MPC’s forecast.- A huge base effect from falling motor fuel prices in December 2023 will boost inflation…
- …But that will be offset by a tobacco-price base effect and weak airfares due to an early CPI collection date.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Don't panic about the prices index just yet.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Falling quits point to a further slowdown in wage growth ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
In one line: Look beyond the headlines for a slightly better story.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: ECB doves were saved by France and Italy.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
